Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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160 FXUS63 KICT 181844 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 144 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty south winds expected through this evening. - Storms are expected to develop along a cold front mainly after 4 pm this afternoon and will become more widespread this evening as they track slowly southeastward. Large hail, damaging winds and heavy rain will be the main threats. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 A mid/upper trough remains situated over the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front was nosing into northwest Kansas. This front appeared slightly faster or further south and east when compared to some of the 12Z guidance. We are still anticipating scattered storms developing within the frontal zone, especially after 21Z or 4 PM. This activity is expected to become more numerous after 00Z when the LLJ cranks up again. We continue to see plenty of buoyancy with 2000-3000 j/kg progged within a marginally sheared airmass. Steep lapse rates and high PWATs/deep warm layer clouds depths continue to support the ongoing forecast this evening with some damaging winds, large hail (especially with the initial updrafts) and locally heavy rainfall. Storms may train along the frontal zone leading to some excessive water as a persistent LLJ noses into parts of south central/central Kansas keeping a buoyant airmass in place supporting training of cells into the frontal zone with repeated rounds of heavy rainfall possible. Storms may begin to struggle with southeastward extent as they encounter more cinh across southern Kansas and confidence in where the axis heaviest precipitation falls remains fairly low. Showers and storms may linger into the morning hours Wednesday with clouds and rain cooled air over central KS keeping temperatures much cooler compared to recent days. Some locations may struggle to reach the mid 70s. Thu-Sat...The mid/upper ridge over the Mid-Atlantic area is progged to retrograde exerting a greater impact on the Central Plains area. This will lead to mostly dry weather conditions and rising temperatures through the period. Highs on Sat are expected to climb into the mid and upper 90s for many locations. A shortwave trough racing eastward across the Northern Plains on Saturday will allow another frontal boundary to move across Kansas. This front may provide a focus for deep moist convection late in the period. For Sunday through Tuesday, mid/upper ridging will bring rising heights and increasing thickness supporting rising temperatures across the area. A hot stretch is anticipated with highs around or above the century mark through the period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The primary aviation concern today remains to be strong southerly winds gusting to 30-40kts at all sites through the remainder of the afternoon. A frontal system currently making its way through northwest Kansas is expected to touch off showers and storms in the late afternoon and early evening hours. Right now, highest confidence is that these will impact terminals in central Kansas. Not as confident in these reaching KICT, so PROB30 is introduced to reflect this uncertainty. Additionally, cigs lowered to near-IFR levels are expected to follow in the wake of these storms beginning in the early morning hours on Wednesday in central and south central Kansas. Stay tuned to later forecasts for greater confidence in the timing and coverage of these impacts. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ067>069-082- 083-091>093. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWM AVIATION...JWK