Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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524 FXUS63 KICT 230532 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1232 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances linger tonight/Monday mainly east of the turnpike with small chances areawide again on Tuesday. - Mild days and cool nights this week! && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Some much needed rainfall in the past 24 hours with much of it falling over the drought-stricken areas of south central Kansas. Clouds with residual scattered light rain and drizzle in the post-frontal airmass early this afternoon with an unseasonably cool north wind over much of the area. The exception is far southeast Kansas where some sunshine along the southward sagging frontal boundary has allowed temperatures to top 80F. This is where a diurnal uptick in showers/storms will remain possible late this afternoon/early evening for a locally strong storm. Otherwise, residual post frontal clouds and scattered light rain/drizzle chances will prevail through early tonight across the Flint Hills into parts of south central Kansas. A residual weak upper trof will linger over the central Plains/eastern Kansas on Monday with slight chances for a few showers in far southeast Kansas. Meanwhile a stronger northern stream upper trof will settle southward across the northern Plains into the Midwest Monday night thru Tuesday. The relatively cool air aloft under the upper trof combined with diurnal heating may promote scattered convection across central and eastern Kansas on Tuesday afternoon. This is somewhat conditional with respect to rather limited surface/low level moisture. Nonetheless, a few showers/storms could be capable of some small hail and gusty winds. The medium range consensus continues to support developing this into a cutoff low meandering southward in vicinity of the Ozark region later in the week as a Rex-type blocking pattern (ridge aloft) builds over the Upper Midwest/northern Great Lakes. Overall, temperatures look to average a bit below seasonal climo thru the week. Darmofal && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 We are expecting a gradual uptick in showers/thunderstorms over southeast Kansas later tonight into Monday morning, impacting mainly the CNU TAF. Included a TEMPO group with TSRA from 09-13z to cover this threat, although shower/storm chances could linger through 15z or so. Otherwise, IFR to MVFR ceilings will persist over portions of south-central and southeast Kansas overnight, with ceilings gradually improving from northwest to southeast during the day Monday as drier air moves in. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KED AVIATION...ADK