Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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524 FXUS63 KICT 181733 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1233 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms this morning, then later tonight with a few severe storms capable of wind gusts up to 65 mph and isolated hail up to quarter size. - Warm tomorrow and Friday. - Much cooler temperatures coming this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Water vapor imagery this morning indicates a strong mid/upper trough beginning to eject to the northeast out of the Four Corners region. A line of showers and storms continues to push its way eastward through KS. This activity is not expected to be severe, but will bring much-needed rainfall to western and central portions of the state. PRECIPITATION... A second opportunity for showers and storms will arise later this evening as a dryline sets up over west central Kansas. This will provide forcing for showers and a few severe storms. Given decent deep-layer shear (35-40 kts), curved low-level hodographs, and moderate instability (1500 J/kg), supercells capable of producing up to 65 mph wind gusts and occasional hail up to quarter size are possible. These are progged to begin in west central KS around 23Z and track their way east. Looking ahead to the end of the week, a surface trough will move through the state as the upper trough pushes across the Northern Plains. This boundary will stall out over KS by Friday, and with the arrival of the LLJ by evening, widespread showers are possible for areas along and north of US-56. Persistent mid-level WAA will allow for additional opportunities for rain in central and south central KS through the weekend. TEMPERATURES... Above-normal high temperatures (upper 80s to lower 90s) are expected to dominate the scene for one more day before highs well above average (middle to upper 90s) arrive tomorrow and Friday. In addition to this late-week heat, afternoon dewpoints in the middle to upper 60s will provide an opportunity for heat indices approaching 100 degrees, especially in southern KS. The arrival of a cold front this weekend will bring a taste of fall to Kansas, with afternoon highs in the middle to upper 70s to begin next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 VFR conditions expected to prevail away from any convection. Isolated to widely scattered showers/storms may impact portions of central Kansas early this evening, generally along/west of a Salina to Hutchinson line. Gusty south to southeast winds will prevail along/west of the I-135 corridor. KED && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...KED