Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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084 FXUS63 KICT 251942 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 242 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous heat this afternoon. - Showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening, some storms could be locally strong or severe - A cooler but still a hot day expected for Wednesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 An area of showers and cloud cover over South Central Kansas this morning is slowing down temperatures rise. This cloud cover will not hang around too long and once it clears, temperatures are expected to sky rocket into the upper 90s and low 100s. Tds are remain in the 70s which will create heat indices in the 103 to 110 range over much of the area. Late this afternoon, a weak frontal system will be pushing into the region. Shear values and upper level support is paltry at best but low level moisture and lapse rates are rather good. Given this combination of factors, thunderstorm activity is expected later this afternoon and into the overnight. Intensity of this thunderstorm activity is more difficult to nail down. At this time, wide spread severe thunderstorm activity is not expected with the best chances for severe thunderstorms is expected to remain to the north and east of the CWA. As such, strong thunderstorms with a few isolated severe thunderstorms appears to be the general theme this afternoon. The main threat from this activity will be very heavy rain and brief gusty downburst winds up to 60 mph. Residence time of any thunderstorm activity looks to be fairly short so wide spread flooding issues except in the unlikely event of training storms. As such, flooding is expected to be isolated and short lived. Wednesday subsidence will return to the region but the atmospheric make up will be a little cooler and drier. While temperatures will not breech the century mark, temperatures will remain above normal for this time of year. Thursday and Friday, the humidity will return bring another chance for very hot days and with high heat indices. Thursday does not look like it will reach the century mark but Friday is beginning to look like a very hot day which may reach excessive heat criteria. The main issue here is the proximity of the next front which is expected to arrive Friday afternoon. This front is stronger than today`s front which puts the very high temperatures for Friday in doubt. As such, held off on the excessive heat watch for this forecast cycle. Cooler temperatures are expected for the weekend but they will still be above normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR conditions are expected for the first several hours of this TAF period. The main issue between 22Z and 07Z tonight will be the areal coverage of the shower and thunderstorm activity. At this time, it appears KSLN and KCNU will be the most likely terminals to get the thunderstorm activity. KHUT and KICT have lower chances this evening. Very heavy rain and brief gusty winds are the most likely issue and may bring VSBYs down into the IFR level for periods of time. Confidence on timing is not very good. By 07Z, the thunderstorm activity will diminish and VFR conditions will return to the region for the remainder of the TAF period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033- 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. && $$ DISCUSSION...ELM AVIATION...ELM