243
FXUS63 KICT 182352
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
652 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty south winds expected through this evening.

- Storms are expected to develop along a cold front mainly after
  4 pm this afternoon and will become more widespread this
  evening as they track slowly southeastward. Large hail,
  damaging winds and heavy rain will be the main threats.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A mid/upper trough remains situated over the Northern Rockies and
Northern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front was nosing into
northwest Kansas. This front appeared slightly faster or further
south and east when compared to some of the 12Z guidance. We are
still anticipating scattered storms developing within the frontal
zone, especially after 21Z or 4 PM. This activity is expected to
become more numerous after 00Z when the LLJ cranks up again. We
continue to see plenty of buoyancy with 2000-3000 j/kg progged
within a marginally sheared airmass. Steep lapse rates and high
PWATs/deep warm layer clouds depths continue to support the
ongoing forecast this evening with some damaging winds, large
hail (especially with the initial updrafts) and locally heavy
rainfall. Storms may train along the frontal zone leading to
some excessive water as a persistent LLJ noses into parts of
south central/central Kansas keeping a buoyant airmass in place
supporting training of cells into the frontal zone with
repeated rounds of heavy rainfall possible. Storms may begin to
struggle with southeastward extent as they encounter more cinh
across southern Kansas and confidence in where the axis heaviest
precipitation falls remains fairly low.

Showers and storms may linger into the morning hours Wednesday with
clouds and rain cooled air over central KS keeping temperatures much
cooler compared to recent days. Some locations may struggle to reach
the mid 70s.

Thu-Sat...The mid/upper ridge over the Mid-Atlantic area is progged
to retrograde exerting a greater impact on the Central Plains area.
This will lead to mostly dry weather conditions and rising
temperatures through the period. Highs on Sat are expected to climb
into the mid and upper 90s for many locations.

A shortwave trough racing eastward across the Northern Plains on
Saturday will allow another frontal boundary to move across Kansas.
This front may provide a focus for deep moist convection late in the
period. For Sunday through Tuesday, mid/upper ridging will bring
rising heights and increasing thickness supporting rising
temperatures across the area. A hot stretch is anticipated with
highs around or above the century mark through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A line of strong to severe storms continues to march eastward
across central Kansas, and may enter into south-central Kansas
later tonight. The main concerns with these storms will be
strong winds with gusts around 40 to 50 knots (although these
storms have a history of producing 60 to 65-knot gusts) large
hail up to half-dollar size. As storms move east, a very gradual
weakening trend is expected, and it may be a struggle for storms
to make it to KICT.

Additional storm development is possible across portions of
southwest and south-central Kansas during the morning hours on
Wednesday, although confidence is low on the spatial extent of
these storms.

Across southeast Kansas, for KCNU and surrounding areas, VFR
conditions are expected through the TAF period. Although,
intermittent lower cigs cannot be ruled out during the morning
hours.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ067>069-082-
083-091>093.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...JC