Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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583 FXUS63 KICT 162318 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 618 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms dwindling across central KS - Additional storms expected across western KS this afternoon, may move into central KS this evening and overnight - The best chances for more-widespread storms arrive Tuesday evening into Tuesday night and over the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 As of 245 PM, persistent WAA rooted near 700 mb continues to generate convection across portions of central KS. The zone of best WAA will continue to progress eastward and out of the forecast hour in the next couple of hours. Our attention then turns westward to a sharpening dryline across western KS. A cumulus field should gradually deepen through late afternoon. A subtle shortwave trough across northern NM is forecast to emerge into the Plains late this afternoon into the evening. This feature should aid in thunderstorm development along the dryline. Considerable uncertainty remains whether these storms can reach central KS given substantial surface based inhibition across central KS. As the night progresses additional elevated convection is possible across central KS. Similar to this morning, no severe weather is expected but heavy rain and small hail are possible. Transitioning into Tuesday evening, a stronger midlevel shortwave trough, currently across the southern CA coast, will eject into the central and northern High Plains. Widespread convection is expected along the dryline from NE through KS. A strengthening LLJ should allow convection to percolate eastward and into portions of central and south central KS. Again, minimal shear will limit any threat of severe weather. By Wednesday, the initial shortwave trough will be lifting into the northern High Plains with a second shortwave digging across the southwest US. The dryline will once again sharpen across west- central KS with dew points increasing into the mid-60s. While overall large scale ascent will remain meager, the conditional environment will be quite favorable for supercells. At this point, the most-favorable zone extends along and west of a line from Russell to Great Bend. For Thursday and Friday, WAA aided convection is possible each morning ahead of an even stronger midlevel trough poised to traverse the Plains through the weekend. On that note, widespread rainfall is possible Saturday into Sunday with the arrival of the previously mentioned trough axis. There remains some discrepancy with the track of the trough axis. The EPS ensemble mean has trended towards the operational GFS and its southern track across KS. This solution would bring widespread rain amounts greater than 0.5". Meanwhile, the operational EC remains pointed at a northern track across western NE. While this still brings rain chances to the area, rain amounts would likely be less 0.5". Stay tuned! && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 612 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Breezy southeasterly winds will quickly diminish around sunset this evening at the TAF sites. Late tonight decaying showers and storms from western Kansas will approach GBD and RSL however confidence continues to remain too low at this time to introduce a thunderstorm mention. Early tomorrow morning, low clouds will expand from southeastern Kansas into central Kansas with MVFR to IFR conditions expected due to visibility and ceiling heights. These low clouds will dissipate by late morning with VFR conditions expected thereafter. Southeasterly winds will become breezy once again tomorrow afternoon. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BRF AVIATION...WI