Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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543 FXUS63 KICT 090553 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1253 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms impacting locations mainly south of I-70 overnight, along with heavy rainfall and localized flooding. - Near to below average temperatures today through Tuesday. - Temperatures warming near to above average Wednesday through the weekend. - Slight chances for showers/thunderstorms Tuesday, with off- and-on thunderstorm chances Thursday night through the weekend, but predictability is low this far out. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 OVERNIGHT--THIS MORNING...There are currently two areas of storms we are monitoring. The first is oriented west-east across central Kansas, within a zone of decent 800-650 confluence/frontogenesis. These storms will have the greatest potential for large hail (possibly up to half-dollar or ping-pong ball size) as it taps into a strong reservoir of instability to the south amidst around 40 kts of effective deep layer shear. These storms will also pose a very heavy rainfall and localized flooding threat, as they are slow- moving and training over the same areas, amidst above average precipitable waters. The second area of thunderstorms is racing east over portions of western and central Kansas. This squall line has developed a well- defined cold pool, and has a history of producing 60-80+ mph winds over western Kansas. We anticipate this threat for 60-80+ mph winds to shift east into south-central and possibly southeast Kansas overnight, with this squall line being sustained by deep easterly low-level flow amidst strong instability and adequate effective deep layer shear. The hail threat should be lower with this second area of storms since it`s more forward propagating/linear. While there will be locally heavy rainfall, the potential for flooding will probably be lower with this 2nd area of storms since it`ll be moving faster. THIS AFTERNOON--WEDNESDAY...A post-frontal airmass will support near to below average temperatures along with dry conditions this afternoon through Monday. For Tuesday, a meandering upper low could bring a few showers/thunderstorms to the region, although model trends have been backing off on these chances. Temperatures will be warming back up closer to normal levels by Wednesday. THURSDAY--SUNDAY...Near to above normal temperatures are probable late week into next weekend. Could be looking at a few chances for thunderstorms starting Thursday night, as a frontal zone oozes south into Mid-America, along with a few ripples in the west-northwest flow aloft. These chances look to persist through next weekend, as model consensus progresses an upper trough east into Mid- America. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 The first six to eight hours of this TAF period will be rather unsettled with all terminals expected to see thunderstorm activity for several hours at a time. Some of this activity could be severe with wind gusts approaching 50KT. KICT, KHUT and KSLN are the most likely terminals to see this level of activity. Vsby is expect to be significantly impacted with very heavy rain with this thunderstorm activity. 1SM seemed to be good starting point for the heavy rain but could see some Vsby conditions as low as 1/4SM for short period of time. Again, KHUT and KICT are the most likely terminals to see this activity. After about 10Z, expecting the thunderstorm activity to wane with KCNU the last to clear after 14Z this morning. After this time, VFR conditions are expected to return. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...ELM