Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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673 FXUS63 KICT 141936 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 236 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A stray shower/storm possible in southeast KS this afternoon - Thunderstorms, some severe, expected this evening/overnight across central KS - Additional storms possible Saturday and again Tuesday-Thursday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 As of 230 PM, another warm afternoon was ongoing across the region with temperatures in the low to middle 90s area-wide. A midlevel ridge axis remains positioned overhead. Weak WAA near 700 mb and a remnant MCV generated convection for much of the morning across western KS. This activity has greatly decreased in intensity this afternoon with the loss of substantial WAA. Closer to home, an axis of higher low-level theta-e resides across southeast KS and collocated with a cumulus field. A stray shower/storm is possible through late afternoon (20% or less). No severe weather is expected. Our attention then turns to the higher terrain of CO and NM where convection is developing within an upslope regime. Tend to agree with the latest HREF run with convection growing upscale and moving northeast across portions of central and northern KS. This track keeps the bulk of convection northwest of the midlevel ridge axis. The most likely time for storms across central KS appears to be in the 11PM to 3AM time frame. Damaging winds up to 60 mph and brief heavy rainfall are the chief concerns. A stronger midlevel shortwave trough is poised to eject into the state Saturday. This may focus storms across central and south central KS. Transitioning into next week, the midlevel ridge axis will amplify across the eastern CONUS early next week, leaving the Plains on the western periphery. Temperatures will remain warm with highs in the mid 90s through Tuesday. A western US trough will pivot into the central states Tuesday into Wednesday, shunting a cold front into KS. This should shunt the warmest temperatures into the MS Valley. In addition, shower and storm chances will return Tuesday night through Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 VFR conditions will generally prevail over the region during the next 24hrs with light southeast winds, however a line of thunderstorms could move across portions of central Kansas later tonight. We introduced some PROB30 for the timeframe when that could possibly happen. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMB AVIATION...CDJ