057
FXUS63 KICT 190809
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
309 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few storms will continue today with some pockets
  of heavy rain and localized flooding possible.

- Above normal temps return for the weekend into next week with
  some locations getting close to 100.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Storms developed along the cold front late Tue afternoon/evening
and with the help of outflow the storms and effective cold front
currently stretches from the northern TX Panhandle, into
southern KS and to north of Kansas City. The shortwave that
allowed the front to push south is currently moving into the
Upper Mississippi Valley.

Current thinking is that showers and a few storms will linger
this morning across south central and parts of central KS as
850mb flow remains out of the south even north of the surface
front. A high PW airmass will also remain in place today, with
PW values around 175% of normal. For this morning is looks like
the best chance for heavy rainfall and widespread flooding will
be southwest of the forecast area of western OK into the TX
Panhandle where low level jet will remain more backed resulting
in better convergence. However, high rainfall rates will be
likely across our area with the more intense activity which may
lead to additional localized flooding. We should see a gradual
decrease in shower/storm coverage this afternoon as the front
starts to wash out and the better isentropic lift shifts north.

By Thu morning, upper ridging will extend from the Mid Atlantic
States into the Tennessee Valley. Meanwhile, there is good model
agreement that some shortwave energy will be coming onshore over
central/southern CA with a northern stream impulse tracking east
across the Pacific Northwest. For Fri, upper ridging is expected
to expand into the Ozark region and lower Mississippi Valley.
The Western CONUS upper energy is then expected to quickly track
across the Great Basin on Fri night and across the Central
Plains. This will allow a weak cold front/surface trough to push
south, moving through KS on Sat night into Sun and after today,
will bring our next shower/storm chances. However, confidence is
low that we will see anything as widespread as we are seeing
right now, as the front/trough that moves through will be very
progressive. For the the start of the next work week, there is
good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF in upper ridging
building from the Desert Southwest through the Southern Plains
and will allow anomalously warm 850mb temps to move-in from the
southwest, bringing widespread highs around 100.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Main aviation concern will be showers and storms throughout the
day.

Storms that developed along the cold front earlier this evening
have continued to slowly track southeast overnight and have
been maintained by an increasing low level jet. Current thinking
is that storms will affect KICT-KHUT for the next few hours
with mainly just showers at KGBD-KSLN. Confidence is high that
after the more robust convection dissipates in a few hours, we
will keep at least some showers and isolated storms around
through much of the day as the surface boundary remains in place
along with a very moist airmass. In addition, we may see some
MVFR cigs develop over central KS this morning, mainly affecting
KRSL- KGBD- KSLN.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL