877
FXUS63 KICT 140549
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1249 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions yielding heat indices near 105 continue
  into the evening

- Severe thunderstorms expected late this afternoon into the evening

- Additional storms, some severe, possible late Friday into
  Friday night and again Saturday night, mainly across central
  KS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

As of 2 PM Thursday afternoon, a broad area of midlevel ridging
remains parked across much of the central and southern Plains.
A northern stream shortwave trough near the Great Lakes has
pushed a cold front into portions of northern KS. A modest
temperature gradient resides along this boundary with 80s and
90s north with near 100 along and south. Coupling in dew points
in the 60s to near 70 degrees is contributing to heat indices
near 105. Further west, a triple point resides just south of
Goodland. Satellite reveals a deepening cumulus field near the
triple point. Latest CAMs suggest this cumulus field will be the
zone for convective initiation shortly. Continued surface
heating and modest convergence along the boundary should foster
additional development along the boundary into portions of
central KS by 5 PM. The background environment is not overly
favorable for organized convection with deep layer shear near 25
kt. That being said, MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg should support
strong initial updrafts and possibly a hail threat. In addition,
downdraft CAPE values are nearing 2000 J/kg which would support
strong downdrafts and damaging winds near 70 mph. Confidence
decreases with southern extent in regards to storm potential.
Should an established cold pool form, confidence would increase
for storms across south central KS. Otherwise, the diurnally
driven convection will likely decrease in coverage and intensity
shortly after sunset. All of that to say, the greatest
confidence for storms exists along and north of Highway 50.

Additional storms are possible Friday afternoon into Friday night as
the aforementioned surface trough sinks into central/southern KS.
The main limiting factor for widespread convection is increasing
midlevel temperatures throughout the day as the midlevel ridge axis
slides over the area. This would favor northern KS and adjacent
areas of NE for storm development. A stronger midlevel shortwave
trough is poised to eject into the state Saturday evening. This
should focus storms along a weak cold front across central and south
central KS.

Transitioning into next week, the midlevel ridge axis will amplify
across the eastern CONUS early next week, leaving the Plains on
its western periphery. Temperatures will remain warm with highs
in the mid 90s through Tuesday. A western US trough will pivot
into the central states Tuesday into Wednesday, shunting a cold
front into KS. This should shunt the warmest temperatures into
the MS Valley. In addition, shower and storm chances will return
Tuesday night through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Main aviation concern will be storms Fri night across central
KS.

Storms that developed and tracked south on Thu evening have
dissipated across southern KS over the last couple of hours.
Storms are expected to develop this afternoon over Eastern CO in
an upslope regime and as an upper impulse approaches the
Rockies. These storms will track east and northeast Fri evening
and will affect north central KS generally after 03z Sat. For
now will only run with a prob30 at KRSL-KGBD but confidence is
fairly low on how far south storms will make it. Have higher
confidence for areas north of our forecast area seeing storms
Fri night. Outside of the storms, VFR conditions are expected
through the next 24 hours.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...RBL