846
FXUS63 KICT 190541
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1241 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty south winds expected through this evening.

- Storms are expected to develop along a cold front mainly after
  4 pm this afternoon and will become more widespread this
  evening as they track slowly southeastward. Large hail,
  damaging winds and heavy rain will be the main threats.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A mid/upper trough remains situated over the Northern Rockies and
Northern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front was nosing into
northwest Kansas. This front appeared slightly faster or further
south and east when compared to some of the 12Z guidance. We are
still anticipating scattered storms developing within the frontal
zone, especially after 21Z or 4 PM. This activity is expected to
become more numerous after 00Z when the LLJ cranks up again. We
continue to see plenty of buoyancy with 2000-3000 j/kg progged
within a marginally sheared airmass. Steep lapse rates and high
PWATs/deep warm layer clouds depths continue to support the
ongoing forecast this evening with some damaging winds, large
hail (especially with the initial updrafts) and locally heavy
rainfall. Storms may train along the frontal zone leading to
some excessive water as a persistent LLJ noses into parts of
south central/central Kansas keeping a buoyant airmass in place
supporting training of cells into the frontal zone with
repeated rounds of heavy rainfall possible. Storms may begin to
struggle with southeastward extent as they encounter more cinh
across southern Kansas and confidence in where the axis heaviest
precipitation falls remains fairly low.

Showers and storms may linger into the morning hours Wednesday with
clouds and rain cooled air over central KS keeping temperatures much
cooler compared to recent days. Some locations may struggle to reach
the mid 70s.

Thu-Sat...The mid/upper ridge over the Mid-Atlantic area is progged
to retrograde exerting a greater impact on the Central Plains area.
This will lead to mostly dry weather conditions and rising
temperatures through the period. Highs on Sat are expected to climb
into the mid and upper 90s for many locations.

A shortwave trough racing eastward across the Northern Plains on
Saturday will allow another frontal boundary to move across Kansas.
This front may provide a focus for deep moist convection late in the
period. For Sunday through Tuesday, mid/upper ridging will bring
rising heights and increasing thickness supporting rising
temperatures across the area. A hot stretch is anticipated with
highs around or above the century mark through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Main aviation concern will be showers and storms throughout the
day.

Storms that developed along the cold front earlier this evening
have continued to slowly track southeast overnight and have
been maintained by an increasing low level jet. Current thinking
is that storms will affect KICT-KHUT for the next few hours
with mainly just showers at KGBD-KSLN. Confidence is high that
after the more robust convection dissipates in a few hours, we
will keep at least some showers and isolated storms around
through much of the day as the surface boundary remains in place
along with a very moist airmass. In addition, we may see some
MVFR cigs develop over central KS this morning, mainly affecting
KRSL- KGBD- KSLN.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...RBL