Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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750 FXUS63 KICT 221731 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1231 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A narrow swath of showers/storms central and north-central Kansas early this morning, with a few hit-or-miss thunderstorms possible far southeast Kansas today through tonight. - Thunderstorm potential and associated severe weather chances Thursday through Thursday night, and again Saturday afternoon through night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 EARLY THIS MORNING...A strong mid-level baroclinic zone ahead of potent shortwave energy approaching from the west will support a narrow band of showers/thunderstorms progressing east across portions of central and north-central Kansas early this morning, mainly north of a line extending from Great Bend to Salina. A narrow swath of around one-quarter inch of rainfall is probable. This precipitation should exit eastward into northeast Kansas by 7-9 AM. TODAY-TONIGHT...Otherwise, a stalling frontal zone will support off- and-on areas of showers/thunderstorms today through tonight across portions of Oklahoma, southern Missouri, and Arkansas, with some of this activity possibly impacting extreme southeast Kansas. A modest combination of elevated instability and effective deep layer shear may support pea-dime size hail with the strongest activity over far southeast Kansas through tonight. However, better chances will likely remain further south. THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...Increasing deep warm advection and strong moisture transport from the south-southwest amidst shortwave energy approaching from the west could support increasing shower/thunderstorm chances across the region Thursday. There`s quite a bit of model spread, so uncertainty is low on the coverage of storms. If storms can develop, thinking at least initially activity would be "elevated" rooted above the boundary layer, with the strongest activity posing a risk of isolated large hail given the instability/shear combination. However, storms could become more surface-based through the afternoon and into the evening with afternoon heating, although strong moisture advection and the potential for lingering low clouds may tend to stunt heating. If storms can become more surface-based, the risk for damaging winds and perhaps a few isolated tornadoes could materialize later in the day. The isolated tornado threat would be focused during the evening coincident with an increasing low-level jet. For Thursday night...a complex or two of thunderstorms may impact the region, as a strong cold intersects a dryline and approaches from the west-northwest. Given the potential for more linear storm mode, the primary concern with this activity would be damaging winds. All-in-all, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty Thursday-Thursday night, so stay tuned. SATURDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...The potential for a more synoptically evident severe weather episode could take shape somewhere across the Central and Southern Plains, as approaching shortwave energy sharpens a dryline across the High Plains, amidst increasing moisture/instability. Model consensus returns moisture all day Saturday, with dewpoints early morning only in the low 50s. Consequently, much of the day may consist of low clouds, limiting heating and associated surface-based instability. All-in-all, uncertainty remains in the forecast. Stay tuned, as the combination of long hodographs and potentially strong instability could pose at least an isolated threat for higher-end severe weather if all ingredients come together. MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...A pattern change is expected across the region through at least mid next week, with dry northwest flow aloft. This should support mostly dry weather, with lower dewpoints and seasonable to seasonably cool temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 VFR conditions are expected for this TAF period. KCNU may have some VFR CIGs for a few more hours but this is expected to clear by 23Z this afternoon. Winds are expected to remain light and variable until about 12Z to 15Z tomorrow morning. Winds will turn more southerly with gusty winds expected toward the end of the TAF period. KRSL, KGBD and KSLN are the terminals expected to get the gusty winds first around 16Z tomorrow. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...ELM