948
FXUS63 KICT 101939
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
239 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures return this week, with a slight chance of a
  shower or two Tuesday morning in north central KS.

- Upper 90s to lower 100s possible on Thursday.

- Slight chances for showers and storms later this week into
  the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...

Current water vapor imagery shows an upper level ridge settling in
over the High Plains and bringing northwesterly flow aloft to
central and eastern Kansas. This quiet pattern should hold through
the rest of today and into tonight as a weak shortwave rolls in off
the High Plains and into northern Kansas. Coverage of this latest
opportunity for precipitation is expected to be very limited and is
not expected to be severe. Otherwise, look for high temperatures
tomorrow and Wednesday to approach 90 degrees for much of the region.

...THURSDAY THRU MONDAY...

Above average temperatures are expected across the area on Thursday
with widespread highs in the upper 90s to near 100 expected.
Opportunities for rain return on Friday as a frontal boundary
approaching from Nebraska stalls over central Kansas. The next
opportunity for storms returns quickly by Saturday afternoon as a
weak upper-level shortwave arrives from the southwest. Deterministic
model guidance generally agrees on the timing and weak magnitude of
this wave. Thus, the relatively-weak deep-layer shear (20-30 kts)
progged for this event is likely to limit the probability of
widespread severe storms. Given modest instability over Kansas,
however, the strongest storms may still be capable of producing
damaging winds and severe hail. Otherwise, look for widespread highs
in the middle to upper 90s to settle in through the weekend
into the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Quiet VFR conditions are expected at all sites throughout the
period, with winds anticipated to become more southerly through the
overnight and early morning hours. A slight chance of showers at
KRSL and KSLN returns toward the end of the period as a weak system
approaches north central KS early tomorrow morning, but confidence
in timing and location of these remains low at this time.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JK/CDJ
AVIATION...JK/CDJ