059
FXUS62 KILM 310747
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
347 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably mild temperatures are expected through Saturday as
dry high pressure moves from the Great Lakes to the eastern
Carolinas. The high will push offshore Sunday, bringing warmer
and more humid air across the area with isolated showers and
thunderstorms possible most of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mid-level trof to swing off the E coast this morning. At the
sfc, center of high pressure over the Great lakes, will re-
assert itself across the area with a mini NNW-NNE surge of even
cooler and drier air. Could even observe 40s dewpoints reaching
the outskirts of the FA with some mixing from aloft possibly
aiding. Upper 70s to lower 80s for todays maxes will be in the
offering. The center of the Great Lakes high will begin its
drop towards the Mid-Atlantic States and the Carolinas tonight.
This will relax the sfc pg enough to the point of some locales
dropping to calm for a good portion of the night. 50 to 55
degree lows will be common in the fcst tonight, except near 60
at the immediate coast where winds will have more of an easterly
direction, crossing adjacent SSTs in the 70s. Scattered high cu
or altocu will dominate today followed by thin cirrus tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet forecast continues this period. High pressure just to the
north of the area starts to push offshore by Saturday evening.
Plenty of sunshine expected Saturday, with highs in the low-to-
mid 80s. Seabreeze may actually limit the beaches to the upper
70s.

As the high pressure moves offshore, return flow gets going,
allowing for a warming and moistening trend. A weak shortwave
moves through the area, with most of the forcing to the north.
Cloud cover increases Saturday night and Sunday, and the
atmosphere will try to squeeze out a light shower or two.
However, most will stay dry. Despite the cloud cover, highs
Sunday start to rebound, generally in the mid 80s. Lows Saturday
night in the lower 60s, becoming the mid- to-upper 60s by
Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Offshore high pressure slowly drifts off further east, as the
return flow continues. Temperatures continue to warm, with 90
degree readings likely by Tuesday. With more moisture coming
into the fold, this brings back slight chances of showers and
storms in the afternoon. Rain chances might get more robust by
midweek, with a better looking Piedmont trough and possibly some
shortwave forcing aloft. Forecast guidance is shaky on this
idea though. Will need to see how this changes over time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR thru the 24 hr TAF Issuance period. Sfc cfp or trof passage
will result in NNW- NNE 5 to 10 kt prior to sunrise, around 10
kt with g15kt from daytime morning thru mid afternoon. Winds
will veer to the NE-E in the aftn/evening as the sfc high drops
toward the Carolinas from the Great Lakes. Looking at SCT 7k ft
clouds thru this aftn. Thin cirrus will follow later this aftn
into this evening.

Extended Outlook...Isolated mainly afternoon and evening TS are
possible beginning Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...A secondary surge of even cooler and drier
air will push across the waters this morning into tonight under
NNW-NNE winds initially. The surge a result of the high over the
Great Lakes reinforcing itself across the region as a mid-
level trof swings off the Carolina Coasts and offshore this
morning. The tightened sfc pg thru midday will relax some later
this aftn thru tonight as the center of the high drops toward
the Carolinas, with winds becoming NE-ENE direction. Seas will
be governed by the short period wind driven waves at 3 to 5
second periods with an underlying ESE-SE small swell at 7+
second periods.

Saturday through Tuesday...Benign marine conditions expected in
the extended period. Easterly winds at 5-10kts become
southeasterly by Saturday night, and then SSW by Sunday. Winds
increase to 10-15kts briefly Sunday night through Monday
morning. Seas mostly 1-2ft, with a few 3ft waves possible.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IGB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/IGB