920
FXUS62 KILM 172251
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
651 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low and cold front approaching from the west will
bring unsettled weather through SUnday. Cooler and drier air
arrives Sunday night. Later next week will feature a warmup and
only a gradual increase in rain chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
Latest KLTX and surrounding radar trends used to incorporate
hrly POPs thru midnight than meshed with ongoing fcst there-
after. Ltg difficult to come by given the observed low topped
pcpn, thus kept thunder limited to slight chance for tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Increasing WAA/isentropic upglide will cause clouds to lower/thicken
overnight. Some light rain should also spread into the area from the
south and west but guidance seemed a bit fast as the lift if weak
initially. This uncertainty sort of translates into tomorrow`s
forecast. Guidance varies considerably regarding Saturday`s eventual
destabilization and our severe weather potential. With both a
surface front and a mid level vort and possibly a convective MCV
there may be enough forcing to overcome less than impressive
instability. SPC continues to highlight our area for SLGT mainly for
winds. Shear isn`t very impressive but heavy rain and wet
microbursts seem the most likely culprits.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Main upper trough axis approaches Sat night and swings through late
Sunday keeping the weather quite unsettled. The same arguments above
regarding good forcing but poor instability applies, though with
rain somewhat widespread pockets of sunshine that were possible Sat
seem unlikely Sun. Cooler and much drier air spills in from the NW
Sun night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Monday`s highs quite seasonable as a narrow area of high pressure
builds in but dewpoints barely above 60 will give a much earlier in
the Spring feel. The high moves east and upper ridging builds
Tuesday and Wed allowing for a warmup. The latter part of the period
will feature a bit more in the way of moisture possibly supporting
isolated storms caused by mainly mesoscale processes. A cold front
could lead to a more substantial rain offering on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR for the remainder of today with gradual lowering of cloud cover
overnight, eventually dipping to IFR if not lower. Showers should
increase in coverage overnight as well but may be hard pressed to
lead to significant VSBY restrictions.

Extended Outlook...The next storm system and associated
periodic flight restrictions will affect the area late Fri night
thru the weekend and likely into Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday... Light S to SE winds tonight with about a
category of speed increase on Saturday as a front approaches. The
sea state will be comprised predominantly of wind waves with no
appreciable swell, so we should add a foot to the upper range on
Saturday, 2 ft opening up to 2-3.

Saturday night through Wednesday... Pre-frontal flow regime will see
increase wind speeds as a front approaches Saturday night. A fairly
sharp wind shift to northerly occurs with FROPA Sunday making for
choppy, short period seas. High pressure keeps a northerly component
on Monday with abating gradient/seas. Light NE winds Tuesday less
from the high and moreso from a weak offshore low.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...ILM