572
FXUS62 KILM 180552
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
152 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low and cold front approaching from the west will
bring unsettled weather through Sunday. Cooler and drier air
arrives Sunday night. Later next week will feature a warmup and
only a gradual increase in rain chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
Widely scattered showers have developed across southeast NC. May
see additional light showers develop from the southwest over the
next few hours and continue through morning. 6z aviation
discussion included below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Increasing WAA/isentropic upglide will cause clouds to
lower/thicken overnight. Some light rain should also spread
into the area from the south and west but guidance seemed a bit
fast as the lift if weak initially. This uncertainty sort of
translates into tomorrow`s forecast. Guidance varies
considerably regarding Saturday`s eventual destabilization and
our severe weather potential. With both a surface front and a
mid level vort and possibly a convective MCV there may be enough
forcing to overcome less than impressive instability. SPC
continues to highlight our area for SLGT mainly for winds. Shear
isn`t very impressive but heavy rain and wet microbursts seem
the most likely culprits.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Main upper trough axis approaches Sat night and swings through
late Sunday keeping the weather quite unsettled. The same
arguments above regarding good forcing but poor instability
applies, though with rain somewhat widespread pockets of
sunshine that were possible Sat seem unlikely Sun. Cooler and
much drier air spills in from the NW Sun night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Monday`s highs quite seasonable as a narrow area of high
pressure builds in but dewpoints barely above 60 will give a
much earlier in the Spring feel. The high moves east and upper
ridging builds Tuesday and Wed allowing for a warmup. The latter
part of the period will feature a bit more in the way of
moisture possibly supporting isolated storms caused by mainly
mesoscale processes. A cold front could lead to a more
substantial rain offering on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low stratus is forecasted to develop across the area over the
next few hours and potentially linger through midday. Ceilings
will be around 1000-2000 ft. As a warm front lifts north this
morning, confidence is low in ceilings remaining steady and will
likely see occasional breaks/improvements to VFR. With
isentropic lift early today followed by upper shortwave this
afternoon and a cold frontal passage tonight, looking at an
unsettled TAF period. Have VCSH or -SHRA for majority of the
forecast beginning during pre-dawn hours and continuing through
6z tonight - TAF locations will have more dry time than wet
overall. Best chance for thunder looks to be between 18z and
23z, though may be isolated lightning this morning and after 0z
this evening. Chance for isolated severe weather today,
primarily in the form of strong gusts. Fog may begin to develop
inland in the last couple hours of the TAF period tonight behind
the cold front.

Extended Outlook...The next storm system and associated
periodic flight restrictions will continue to affect the area
Sat night into Mon. VFR to mainly dominate Tue thru Wed while
an upper low remains just off the SE States Coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday... Light S to SE winds tonight with about a
category of speed increase on Saturday as a front approaches.
The sea state will be comprised predominantly of wind waves
with no appreciable swell, so we should add a foot to the upper
range on Saturday, 2 ft opening up to 2-3.

Saturday night through Wednesday... Pre-frontal flow regime will
see increase wind speeds as a front approaches Saturday night.
A fairly sharp wind shift to northerly occurs with FROPA Sunday
making for choppy, short period seas. High pressure keeps a
northerly component on Monday with abating gradient/seas. Light
NE winds Tuesday less from the high and moreso from a weak
offshore low.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...MBB