993
FXUS62 KILM 270628
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
200 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front should enhance thunderstorm coverage
late Monday into Monday night. Mostly dry weather is expected to
commence from Tuesday onward as the front pushes offshore after
stalling through mid-week. Dry high pressure should remain in
control going into this upcoming weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Forecast updated to lower PoPs a bit overnight to no higher than
20% based on latest radar trends, and confined to far inland
areas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A mid level shortwave will move through with best energy to the
north extending into NC with a H5 ridge up the Southeast coast.
This should provide a brief period with isolated convection
mainly across inland NC late this evening, mainly 02-05z. The
soundings have some elevated instability with moisture within 5
to 8 k ft and around 20 k ft with quite a bit of dry air below
and above these levels. Pcp water values increase up near 1.8
with passing of shortwave. Overall, expect best chc of
convection to be after dark after we lose daytime heating and
should remain mainly widely sct.

Following this shortwave, the main mid to upper trough will
begin to dig southward pushing the ridge off the coast into Mon
and pushing a cold front eastward through the Carolinas. The
leading edge of convection associated with this system should
reach our western zones later in the day on Mon, but can not
rule out some more localized aftn convection flaring ahead of
the front as ridge gets nudged offshore into the aftn. SPC has
our forecast area outlined in slight risk with main threat of
damaging winds ahead of front later on Mon.

Warm and humid weather will continue with temps remaining above
normal, near or above 90. Overnight lows tonight will be close
to 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Scattered storms are expected to be ongoing across the area
early Monday night ahead of an approaching cold front, aided by
upper level support. Lingering instability and elevated shear
will maintain a slight risk of severe weather, mainly before
midnight Monday night. Scattered showers linger through Tuesday
morning when the front slowly reaches the coast and stalls.
Mostly dry and sunny Tuesday, with downslope flow aiding in
another unseasonably warm day with highs around 90F. Low temps
Tuesday night in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Predominantly dry back half of the week heading into next
weekend as stalled front near the coast is pushed further
offshore Wednesday and high pressure builds in for next weekend.
There remains some uncertainty for Thursday. GFS has been
consistent for a few runs now with bringing a shortwave and
corresponding weak surface low up the coast Thursday, which
would introduce clouds and some light rain across coastal
Carolinas Thursday. With ECM and CMC remaining dry, and after
coordinating with neighboring offices, have trended pops up a
bit for Thursday but kept just below measurable for now. For
next weekend, how quick the surface high overhead moves offshore
will determine timing of return flow and possible return of
diurnal convection. Above normal temps Wednesday will drop to
slightly below normal late week before slowly warming into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR to start off the 00Z TAF period, except for possible and brief
period of IFR stratus and N thru NE winds 10 kt or less thru 07-08z
for the ILM and possibly LBT terminals. Otherwise, looking at VFR
there-after with SW winds staying active enough to keep early
morning fog limited. Approaching cold front from its parent low
located over SE Canada, will result in a tightening sfc pg ahead of
it, with SW winds gust to around 20 kt this aftn and evening. Wind
directions at the coastal terminals will become S-SSW due to the sea
breeze. Convection will break out midday, vcnty of the sea breeze,
and where the outflow from last night ended up. Convection upstream
will approach and move across the terminals later this aftn and
evening, likely ongoing at the end of this 24 hr fcst period.

Extended Outlook...Scattered thunderstorms and accompanied periodic
short-lived IFR conditions late tonight thru Tue, especially across
the SC terminals. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions and VFR
thereafter for the remainder of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...Light winds and minimal seas will increase out
of the S-SW heading into Monday as a cold front approaches from
the west. Southerly winds to 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25
kts will drive the seas up through Mon from 2 ft to 3 to 4 ft.
Should remain below SCA thresholds for winds and seas. A
slightly longer minimal southeast swell around 8 seconds will
mix in.

Monday Night through Friday...Elevated south-southwest winds
(15-20 kt) and seas (around 4 ft) early Monday night will
improve by Tuesday morning as front moves offshore and stalls.
Scattered thunderstorms expected across local coastal waters for
most of Monday night. Front remains stalled near the coast
through Wednesday before being pushed further offshore. Winds
generally 10 kts or less, varying between southwesterly and
northwesterly Tuesday through Wednesday, with seas lowering from
3 ft to 2 ft. There is a chance of a weak surface low moving up
the coast Thursday bringing light showers to the area before
high pressure begins to build over the eastern US. Light
northeasterly winds develop daytime Friday. Seas 1-2 ft Thursday
increase to 2-3 ft Friday. Outside of wind waves, a 1-2 ft 8-9
sec SE swell lingers through the week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Monday through Monday
     evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Monday through Monday
     evening for SCZ056.

MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MAS
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...RGZ/VAO