552
FXUS62 KILM 290216
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1016 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure will dominate again as a lingering front
retreats northward with increasing heat through the weekend.
Another cold front will bring scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms from late Sunday into Monday. Relatively cooler
and drier conditions will arrive behind the front on Tuesday
with a warming and moistening trend through the midweek period.

&&

.UPDATE...
Moist onshore flow from the sfc thru 600mb, will periodically
push cu/stratocu onshore, that may be accompanied by widely
scattered showers. Speed convergence along the coast will just
be enough from the weak onshore flow to further develop the
showers. Dry air above 500mb and enough subsidence aloft to keep
the pcpn as slight chance of showers with no thunder. Massaged
the overnight lows and hrly temps with no major changes needed.
Increased the clouds well inland for possible low stratus but
not entirely bought on its more widespread occurrence via
latest guidance. The same goes with fog, continued the previous
patchy ground fog.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Increased subsidence and dry air aloft will keep convection
isolated through this evening and will dissipate as the sun sets
and heating of the day drops off. Bermuda high pressure will
once again dominate as weakening frontal boundary drifts back
north as warm front and easterly winds veer to the south. This
will reinforce the heat and humidity over the area through
Saturday.

Ridging aloft with increasing heights and plenty of dry air and
subsidence through the mid to upper levels will keep diurnal
localized convection limited again on Sat, mainly associated
with local effects such as sea breeze and farther inland along
the Piedmont trough.

Onshore flow will keep dew points in the low 70s today, recovering
into the mid 70s overnight. Lows tonight will be in the low to
mid 70s. Boundary layer winds will be light tonight with patchy
fog and low clouds possible mainly near daybreak with plenty of
sunshine thereafter. Temps will reach into the low to mid 90s on
Sat and the heat index values should remain just below Heat
Advisory thresholds, but the heat and humidity will be on the
increase over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday night should remain uneventful from a significant
weather standpoint with the ever present inland trough and
Bermuda High Pressure in place. Mid level height falls along
with an accompanying front will change things Sunday into
Monday. These features will bring likely to categorical pops in
time probably more enhanced Sunday afternoon and early evening.
A second and probably smaller uptick will occur Monday midday.
Overall it looks like the best chance for decent/widespread
rainfall in a while. All but unbearable dewpoints Sunday will
probably prompt yet another heat related headline.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The front that comes across earlier takes its time moving
through if it ever really does thus pops remain mainly southern
areas for a day or two. Precipitable water values really drop
off later Wednesday into Thursday leading to an unusual period
of of little to no pops. Recovering moisture along with the
inland trough and sea breeze warrant a muted increase in pops
for late in the period. Should see a break in heat related
headlines for the most part.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Periodic MVFR ceilings, bkn 1500 to 2500 ft likely to occur
thruout the evening at the coast and may become SCT overnight.
There will be a threat for onshore movement of -shra but too
isolated at this time to include at the coastal terminals.
Overnight, may have to contend with patchy ground fog and/or low
stratus, mainly across the inland terminals where winds may go
calm. Sfc front to slowly lift northward as a warm front late
tonight into Sat. Look for winds to veer to the ESE after
daybreak Sat and further veer to the SE-S, along with the aid of
the resultant wind boundary, aka sea breeze, around 10 kt,
possibly g15 kt at the coastal terminals. Will see another round
of Cu by mid to late morning, progressing inland with the sea
breeze. Dry air subsidence aloft to limit convection and will
only include aftn/evening VCTS for the inland terminals at this
juncture.

Extended Outlook...VFR should prevail outside of periodic
MVFR/IFR during diurnal driven showers/thunderstorms plus
patchy morning low clouds/fog. The exception will be Sun aftn
into Mon where widespread showers and thunderstorms will
occur ahead of a CFP.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...Bermuda high pressure will dominate again
into this weekend with easterly winds becoming southerly as a
lingering frontal boundary retreats north as a warm front.
E to SE up to 15 kts will become S through Sat with seas less
than 3 ft with a chop in the afternoon sea breeze. An easterly
swell around 2 ft and 9 seconds will mix in.

Saturday night through Tuesday...South to southwesterly winds
of 10-15 knots will be in place for the first couple of days
followed by a somewhat brief period of light northerly flow in
the wake of a front later Monday. After this a weak return flow
will develop and will be probably enhanced by the sea breeze.
Significant seas will be 2-4 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Increased fire concerns are present across most of the area due to
low fuel moistures and current drought conditions. There are a
couple of chances of rainfall over the next week, with potentially
moderate rain late Sunday through Monday night, but is not expected
to be enough to alleviate dry conditions. While the forecast, namely
RH, remains above criteria for any NWS products, extra caution
should be used, especially with the upcoming 4th of July Holiday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...SHK/RGZ
FIRE WEATHER...RGZ