Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
700 FXUS62 KILM 060423 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1223 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Humidity and storm coverage will increase through Thursday before a cold front moves through early Friday. The weekend will bring seasonable temperatures and mostly dry conditions, with low rain chances returning late Sunday through early next week. && .UPDATE... Coastal Flood Advisory has been canceled. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Isolated/widely scattered showers/tstms will continue into the evening, mainly away from the coast, which is shielded by a well developed sea breeze. Activity should wane shortly after sunset with the loss of heating. For now will keep PoPs out overnight, however an isolated shower/tstm can`t be completely ruled out given weak ripples in southwest flow aloft. The 500 mb positively-tilted trough axis will extend from southeast LA across the western Carolinas by 12Z Thursday, and it will slowly to transition to the SE US coast by Thursday evening. Deep southwest flow will become more enhanced Thursday, leading to a more progressive storm motion than has been noted in the convection west of us over the last couple of days. Shower/tstm coverage should be increasing Thursday, but still looks to be somewhat scattered in nature, so will hold PoPs in the 35-45% range for now. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Unsettled weather ahead of a cold front to end the work week. Only major changes are lingering low POPs Fri near the coast as the cold front looks to stall at the coast through the day before pushing offshore fully Fri night. There also appears to be a bit of a sea breeze right at the coast. Needless to say, in this area enough moisture and instability should linger to warrant mentions of slight thunder in the forecast. Inland should remain mostly dry with clearing skies through Fri AM. Highs in the lower 90s, near 90 Fri as CAA lags behind the front. Meanwhile lows will drop from near 70 into the low to mid 60s Fri night under northerly flow and clear skies. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Sfc high pressure will build in from the west for the weekend with dry conditions through Sun. A closed low to our NE will push waves of shortwave energy through aloft, shower and storm chances increasing through mid next week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A weak shortwave will pass through early this morning with low clouds possible and the potential for shower or two along the coast. Increasing coverage of showers and storms this afternoon ahead of a cold front. SW flow will increase today with gusts up to 20 knots inland and up to 25 knots along the coast. Extended Outlook... Showers/thunderstorms will be a little more widespread Thursday night ahead of a front. VFR expected Friday and Saturday. Restrictions possible in isolated/scattered showers and storms late Sunday into early next week. && .MARINE... Through Thursday...High pressure off the Carolina coast will shift further offshore tonight and Thursday. A cold front will slowly move eastward across TN tonight and into the western Carolinas on Thursday. As a result, winds will take on more of a SW trajectory, with speeds increasing towards 20 kt Thursday afternoon as the gradient tightens. A 1-2 ft SE swell around 7 seconds will persist through Thursday. A 5 second SSW wind wave will build to 3 ft this evening and continue through Thursday ahead of the front, which is expected to be pushing through the central Carolinas by late Thursday afternoon. Thursday Night through Monday...Infrequent gusts near 25 kts are possible at the start of the period as a cold front approaches. The front looks to stall at or just offshore from the coast through Fri evening before continuing offshore Fri night, so SSW winds could persist over the waters until they become NW overnight into Sat morning, speeds near 10 kts. Winds turn to the SSW at 15 kts again Sun ahead of another cold front which looks to move through Mon, improving conditions expected behind the boundary. Seas 4-5 ft decrease to 2-3 ft with 4 footers possible again late Sun into early Mon. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ056. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...21 NEAR TERM...CRM SHORT TERM...LEW LONG TERM...LEW AVIATION...21 MARINE...LEW/CRM