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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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433 FXUS62 KILM 261925 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 325 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions will continue through the weekend. Two cold fronts will move into the region on Thursday and late Sunday bringing increased chances of thunderstorms. Hot temperatures will cool back to normal early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Heat and humidity are driving heat index values in the interior sections of the forecast area and the Grand Strand to over 105 this afternoon. This heat is expected to abate after 6 PM. Afternoon convection is starting and is expected to be isolated in coverage. CAM models are showing the coverage to remain scattered into the early evening. It will be a warm and humid night with a southerly wind blowing overnight ahead of a cold front over the Ohio River Valley, which is expected to drop slowly into our area on Thursday. As the upper- level trough associated with the front moves over the area, a ribbon of 2" precipitable water values will be over our area during Thursday afternoon. Strong instability will provide an environment where there will be a marginal risk for isolated severe thunderstorms. Tomorrow`s combination of heat and high dew points will most likely necessitate a heat advisory. However, if convection begins earlier, this may prevent the heat indices from reaching the 105 to 109 range, potentially averting the need for an advisory. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Front moves into the area Thursday night, with not much more than a brief wind shift. Storms will be dissipating quickly early Thursday night as NVA dominates with exiting upper shortwave, with low temps in the low 70s. Front looks to wash out on Friday, with a more onshore flow Friday afternoon keeping temps a few degrees lower than Thursday though still slightly above normal in the low 90s. Dewpoints remain well in the 70s on Friday, and heat indices in the triple digits is forecasted yet again area wide. PWATS remain elevated, despite some dry air aloft, and plenty of instability will kick off scattered afternoon convection. Another night in the low to mid 70s Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Hot and humid conditions continue through the weekend, with highs in the mid to upper 90s and dewpoints in the 70s. Additional heat advisories appear likely this weekend, with forecast approaching heat warning criteria (heat index >= 110F) on Sunday. Afternoon convection expected each day, with PWATs remaining at or above 2" through the weekend (and into early next week). Rain/thunderstorm chances increase a bit late Sunday into Sunday night as an upper shortwave moves through and a surface low moves across the Northeast with attending front approaching Sunday night. Temperatures "cool" a little for the start of next week to near normal as flow becomes more easterly (versus south-southwesterly). Airmass remains warm and moist and have maintained diurnal convection in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Scattered cumulus at the inland tafs and the earlier cloud cover has delayed the warming a bit and will delay any isolated convection in the areas around the inland TAF sites. Expect mainly VFR conditions with a chance IFR ceilings and visibilities after 06Z. Extended Outlook...VFR should prevail outside of periodic MVFR/IFR during diurnal showers/thunderstorms plus spotty morning low clouds/fog. Thursday afternoon and evening has the highest potential for convection affecting local airports. && .MARINE... Through Thursday...As a cold front slowly approaches the central Carolinas on Thursday, the southerly winds over the waters will veer to the southwest. Wind speeds of 10 to 15 knots are expected. Seas will run around 3 feet with a few 4 feet at 15 to 20 miles off the coast, mainly north of Little River. Thursday Night through Sunday...South-southwest winds Thursday night turn southeasterly briefly on Friday as a front drops into the area before washing out. South-southwest winds return for the weekend around ever present Bermuda high pressure. Wind speeds increase slightly heading into Sunday evening as another front approaches. Seas generally 2-3 ft Thursday night through Sunday, mix of SE swell and SSW wind wave. Best chance for thunderstorms over the coastal waters will be early Thursday night and again late Sunday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099. SC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...RH SHORT TERM...VAO LONG TERM...VAO AVIATION...RH MARINE...VAO/RH