147
FXUS61 KILN 070121
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
921 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak boundary will move east tonight, allowing dry weather.
Dry conditions are forecast to continue Friday and Saturday as
high pressure builds to the south. The threat for showers and a
few thunderstorms returns Saturday night and Sunday when a
couple disturbances are expected to push through the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Cold front is passing through the CWA as of this writing with a
notable Td decrease behind it. All showers have worked their way
east out of the area and scattered cu have dissipated, leaving
mostly clear skies behind. Had a mental back and forth
regarding overnight low temperatures (clearing skies suggest
cooler temps/ slightly elevated winds inhibit that cooling).
Anyway, split the difference and kept overnight lows in the
mid/upper 50s.

Previous discussion--> A boundary located near the middle of
the FA is moving east. Modest instability and moisture are
combining to produce isolated showers over the southeast
quadrant. Kept thunder out due to a strong cap limiting cloud
tops to around 10000 ft. Lower dew points behind the boundary
will bring an end to showers early this evening, while winds
shift to northwest. As skies become mainly clear overnight, and
winds subside under 10 knots, temperatures will drop to the mid
and upper 50s by 6 am.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Models indicate high pressure tracking across the southern
CONUS, providing a subsident circulation to the Ohio Valley.
This setup is forecast to keep dry weather over ILN. Breezy
conditions are expected from the relatively tight pressure
gradient surrounding the high, with gusts close to 30 mph
possible Friday afternoon.

Cold advection will result in below normal temperatures, with
highs reaching the 70s and lows falling to the low and mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
This period will be characterized by troughing and cooler than
normal temperatures, and the lack of hazardous weather.

In the details, deep negative H5 height anomalies will dig into the
eastern CONUS starting Saturday night and completing on
Monday/Tuesday. Several frontal surges will accompany this process,
but lack of deep moisture and instability will keep rainfall chances
low, and precipitation largely showery Saturday night into Sunday as
a southward sinking frontal zone shifts through the area.  The core
of the coolest air will set up on Sunday night-Monday night, with
temperatures well below normal. In fact, Monday`s highs in the lower
70s may be optimistic if cloud cover is higher than currently
expected, something that typically happens in significant cold air
surges in the warm season, Monday may not make it out of the 60s.
Several flanking nights (Sunday night and Monday night) will see
widespread lows in the 50s, some upper 40s not at all out of the
question.

Heights begin to rise toward the middle/end of the work week, with
robust warm advection accompanying it.  Should see temperatures warm
quickly back above normal by the end of the 7 day period.  A mostly
dry week after the frontal surges Saturday night/Sunday, and the low-
end potential for a few cool-air-induced instability showers on
Monday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions overnight for all TAF sites. Winds remain out of
the west around 5-10 knots overnight with some patchy cu
dissipating as we lose daytime heating.

Friday morning winds will pick up and are out of the
west/northwest. Sustained winds around 15 knots with gusts
close to 30 knots throughout the afternoon hours. Additional cu
formation expected, but VFR. Winds decrease around sunset.

OUTLOOK...MVFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Saturday
night and Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...CA/Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Binau
AVIATION...CA