923
FXUS61 KILN 070724
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
324 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the area through tonight,
bringing dry but slightly below normal temperatures. A chance
for showers and a few thunderstorms will return later Saturday
into Sunday morning as a weak upper level disturbance moves
through the Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Some scattered to broken altocumulus clouds will continue to
rotate across northern portions of our area this morning.
Otherwise, in weak cyclonic low level flow, expect to see some
scattered cu development through late morning and into this
afternoon. Temperatures today will be a few degrees below
normal with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure will build east across the Tennessee
Valley through tonight. This will lead to mostly clear skies
through much of the night although we may begin to see some
higher level clouds spread in from the west late ahead of an
approaching mid level short wave. This short wave will continue
to move east across the Ohio Valley, but weaken through the day
on Saturday. As a result, will only bring in slight chance pops
across the southwest through the afternoon. Highs on Saturday
will range from the mid 70s southwest to the upper 70s in the
northeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
This period will be largely characterized by troughing and cooler
than normal temperatures, and the lack of hazardous weather. Near
the end of the period, a warming trend to above normal will settle
in.

To wrap up the weekend, an elongated longwave trough will be
stretched through the entirety of southern Canada, extending
southward into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Weak ripples
within the zonal flow support a mention of rain Sunday. On Monday, a
deeper shortwave will attempt to dig into the Ohio Valley, supplying
a chance for more even cooler conditions. These cooler conditions
extend into Tuesday.

Through the middle to end of the week, a ridge attempts to build
into the Ohio Valley, triggering a warming trend back into the 80s.
A limiting factor is tied to a deepening trough which may delay the
onset of a deeper/stronger ridge expected for the weekend into early
next week. Currently, 00Z GEFS and ECMWF ENS have trended slightly
less in magnitude with the ridge on Thursday/Friday, increasing
uncertainty at how quickly the warm up will arrive.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak cyclonic flow will continue into this afternoon with some
scattered cu development possible again later this morning into
this afternoon. The cu will dissipate heading into this
evening. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
West winds will be breezy this afternoon with gusts to around 25
knots possible.

OUTLOOK...MVFR possible in showers and
thunderstorms Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...JGL