081
FXUS61 KILN 301701
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
101 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure of Canadian origin will bring dry and cool
conditions today through Friday. An unsettled pattern is
expected from late Saturday through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A band of mid level clouds across West Central and Central Ohio will
give way to mostly sunny sky conditions later this morning as a
vorticity max shifts southeast. Northwesterly flow will develop
with surface high pressure of Canadian origin building into the
Great Lakes today. Cool temperatures will continue with highs
in the upper 60s to lower 70s under mostly sunny skies. These
readings are 5 to 7 degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure to settle into the area tonight. Any
diurnally driven cumulus clouds will give way to clear conditions
this evening. A favorable radiational cooling setup will be
place with clear skies and light winds. Temperatures to bottom
out in the mid to upper 40s.

Mid level ridge to build into the area Friday offering dry
conditions. Sunny skies will be observed with temperatures
closer to seasonable normal. Highs on Friday will generally top
out in the middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Departing high pressure Friday night will have a weak surface low
track northeast, reaching northern Ohio overnight on Saturday.
Combined with s/w energy in an upper trough, showers and
thunderstorms will overspread the CWA from the west on Saturday.

Models diverge Saturday night in how long the surface front takes to
cross, with a subsequent uncertainty ending any post-frontal
rainfall on Sunday. While mainly dry Sunday night, was not able to
discount the later ending time of the precip and continued low
chance pops. Monday will start out dry but again models show
significant discrepancies in a pattern that supports
rain/thunderstorm chances with various passing disturbances. Late on
Wednesday and in the evening had the best consensus on the next
frontal passage and increased probability of showers and
thunderstorms.

After a cool start Friday night with lows 50-55, temperatures will
rise to near normal for the weekend and then rise to be around 5
degrees above normal from 80-85. Overnight lows will be close to 10
degrees above normal on both Monday and Tuesday nights, slightly
less so on Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure will allow for VFR conditions to persist for
the TAF period aside from some possible brief visibility dropouts
around 1100z Friday thanks to BR.

Light northerly winds persist until around 0000Z Friday. Light and
variable winds are expected through the overnight. Light easterly
winds develop after 1200z Friday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible late Saturday through
Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...Campbell/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Campbell