809
FXUS61 KILN 131756
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
156 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and dry air will move off to the east today. Low
pressure tracking from the west will provide unsettled weather
Tuesday and Wednesday. Dry weather returns Thursday with high
pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An increase in mid and high clouds, along with some diurnal
cumulus, can be expected this afternoon. Deeper moisture will
increase from the southwest as we head into the evening hours.
This is when a few spotty showers could develop across the far
southwest and west. Otherwise, it will be a warm day with highs
in the 75 to 80 degree range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Low pressure will be getting organized over Missouri tonight,
before reaching Western Kentucky by late Tuesday. As moisture
and lift increase in the circulation ahead of the low, showers
will begin to impact the area tonight, with showers and a few
thunderstorms becoming widespread Tuesday afternoon. Have backed
off on timing of widespread showers relative to previous model
runs. Severe thunderstorm threat appears to be low due to weak
shear and relatively low CAPE under 1000 J/KG. Slow moving
cells, favorable thermodynamic profiles showing tall skinny
CAPE, and ample PWAT point to the possibility of heavy
downpours.

After mild lows around 60 tonight, readings reaching the near
normal low and mid 70s on Tuesday will be limited by clouds and
precip.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper low over Illinois at the beginning of the period will
track east and be off the mid Atlantic coast by Wednesday night.
Associated surface low will move across Kentucky, passing just
south of the forecast area. This will lead to showers and
thunderstorms, particularly Tuesday night while the upper system
is over the area. Precipitable water is forecast to rise to
around 150 percent of normal and weak wind fields will mean that
individual precipitation elements may not move much. So this
could lead to some locally heavy rainfall, although global
ensemble systems have rather modest probabilities of 1 inch or
more of rain within 24 hours.

Heading into Wednesday, coverage and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms will likely decrease on the back side of the
system, although diurnal component will keep chances through the
afternoon. However, activity should quickly diminish by early
Wednesday evening.

High pressure will briefly build in for Thursday. But next
trough will already be approaching. Looks like a northern stream
short wave will pass across the Great Lakes Thursday night into
Friday with lingering positively tilted trough extending into
the southern Plains will more gradually slide east. So surface
low will track north of the area, but trailing cold front will
be somewhat slow to pass through Thursday night through Friday
night. There will be more showers and thunderstorms associated
with that. In the wake of this system, high pressure will build
in over the weekend.

Temperatures on Wednesday will be near normal. Otherwise, the
period will be characterized by slightly above normal readings
with the warmest days being over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mid and high level clouds will increase from the west/southwest
for the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening. Some
SCT diurnal cumulus clouds will occur as well. South winds
around 10 knots will gust up to 20 knots at times.

For tonight, a mid level low pressure system will slowly move
from western Missouri to central Missouri. However, a mid level
disturbance will eject northeast ahead of this main low into our
region. This disturbance will be located in a regime of
increasing deeper moisture and some low level forcing associated
with a modest low level jet. This will result in numerous to
widespread shower activity as it pivots northeast through the
region. An isolated thunderstorm may occur as well. Ceilings
will lower overnight as the atmosphere saturates. Eventually
MVFR and IFR ceilings will be common between 06Z and 12Z. VFR to
MVFR visibilities can be expected in showers with isolated IFR
visibilities possible in heavier showers/storms.

On Tuesday, region may get a brief respite in pcpn activity in
the wake of the disturbance during the mid morning/early
afternoon. However, showers and thunderstorms will increase once
again during the latter part of the afternoon and into the
evening as the main mid level low slowly propagates east into
the lower Ohio Valley. Large scale ascent, diurnal instability
and weak low level forcing will cause the pcpn to occur.
Although main ceilings outside of pcpn will rise to low VFR
(3500 to 4000 feet), lower conditions, MVFR and IFR, can be
expected in heavier showers and storms. Winds will back more to
the southeast as a surface low approaches the region from the
west.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities likely along
with thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday. MVFR ceilings
and visibilities possible with thunderstorms Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio/Hickman
NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Hickman
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Hickman