697
FXUS61 KILN 200520
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
120 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will continue through Sunday until a
cold front moves through Sunday night. Monday will be slightly
cooler before the heat builds back in for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
Westward extension of surface high pressure will remain over the
Ohio Valley tonight along with an upper level ridge. Any lingering
diurnal convection should continue to reduce in coverage this
evening as instability diminishes giving way to a calm, muggy night.
Stagnant, humid air could lead to some slight visibility reductions
around sunrise. Forecast lows are warm- in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
Heat advisory is in effect for Thursday as another day of heat
and humidity is expected with heat index values around 100
expected. Went close to the blend for temperatures with highs
in the 90s and lows in the 70s. Showers and thunderstorms will
develop during the afternoon again with the daytime heating.
Due to the environment, an isolated damaging wind gust cannot
be ruled out in addition to heavy rainfall from any storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mid and upper level ridge that is centered over the east coast to
retrograde west across the lower Ohio Valley and flatten some by the
end of the week. The threat for isolated to scattered storms will
persist around the periphery of the ridge across the northern
counties Friday and Saturday during the afternoon and early evening
hours.

Friday and Saturday will be hot, and perhaps the hottest of this
heat wave. However, with dew points forecast to be in the mid to
upper 60s, heat indices remain around 100, in the advisory range.
Therefore, the heat advisory has been extended into Saturday.

Progressive short wave to track across across the northern Plains
and then move through the upper Great Lakes on Sunday, continuing
eastward into New England Monday. This will allow a surface cold
front to track southeast across the region late Sunday into Sunday
night. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the
front.

Surface high pressure will build in for Monday and pass quickly to
the east on Tuesday allowing for a quick return to southerly flow.
This high will offer a dry period of weather and cooler - near
normal temperatures with highs in the middle and upper 80s.

Temperatures return to the lower 90s on Tuesday. However, drier air
will remain in place with dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Model solution timing differences exist regarding timing for the
next threat for showers and thunderstorms. Have held off pcpn until
Wednesday with the approach of the next shortwave - which is closer
aligned with ECMWF/Canadian solutions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Aside from an axis of a FEW/SCT VFR Cu percolating about
KCVG/KLUK/KDAY, skies have trended mostly clear, allowing for
patchy BR/FG to begin to develop in a few spots. The BR will
likely be most pronounced in river valleys and in sporadic areas
where appreciable rainfall has occurred over the past several
days. Have included some brief IFR VSBYs at both KLUK/KILN to
account for this potential, especially with the light/calm winds
and remnant muggy/stagnant airmass in place.

Diurnally-driven expansion of the Cu field is expected by/past
16z, with SCT conditions expected to prevail for most of the
area during the latter half of the daytime. Some BKN Cu may
develop in pockets, especially for KDAY/KILN. Cannot rule out a
stray afternoon/early evening SHRA/TSRA for nrn sites, including
KILN, but coverage should remain fairly limited.

Light southerly flow will occasionally be more VRB, especially
during the daytime, with non-storm-related winds staying
generally around 5kts or less through the period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KC