990
FXUS61 KILN 160546
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
146 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered northeast of the area will weaken. A low
will move northwest from the Atlantic coast into the central
Appalachians before weakening mid week. This will bring an
increase in clouds and at least a chance of some rain, mainly
from northeast Kentucky into central Ohio.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The surface ridge axis will remain in place across the region
tonight with dry conditions and mostly clear skies persisting.
Lows tonight will be mostly in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
Surface ridge axis will shift northwards a bit during the period
as low pressure moves northwest from the Carolina coast. There
will still be a lot of dry air in place on Monday, but there
could be a bit of diurnal cumulus. Temperatures will not be
quite as warm but still well above normal. Clouds will increase
from the southeast late Monday into Monday night, mainly in the
mid to upper levels, so this may be thin through much of that
time frame. With dry low levels, lows will be able to fall back
into the 50s once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
On Tuesday morning, an upper low will be somewhere southeast of the
Ohio Valley, gradually moving into the area and bringing moisture to
the region. The persistent upper ridge and surface high over the
northeastern states will be weakening as it exits into the Atlantic.
The forecast trend for the ILN CWA has continued to be for the low
to move further into the area, and more quickly than in previous
forecast cycles. While the GFS remains a particularly aggressive
solution with regards to northwestward extent and precipitation, it
is hard to ignore that other models have been catching up to its
depiction over the past few days. PoPs will remain in the chance
category at most, as the showers may be somewhat scattered, and
mostly on the lighter side. Still, a few heavier pockets (and maybe
an embedded thunderstorm here and there) could occur. PoPs will be
greatest on Wednesday, with lesser chances on Tuesday and Thursday.
The other impact for the forecast is that temperatures are a little
lower than were forecast in previous days, with highs Tue-Wed-Thu
now in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Another area of high pressure will begin to build into the area
after the low weakens and shifts off to the southeast again. While
the timing of the departure of the low is uncertain, the high may be
building in by Friday, and more likely for over the weekend. This
will bring drier conditions again, and an increase in temperatures
to the middle to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface and high pressure aloft will stretch from the Great
Lakes thru New England. This will allow dry weather and VFR
conditions to persist thru the TAF forecast period. Expect only
a few fair weather cumulus clouds today with thin high level
clouds streaming in from the east late in the day into tonight.

Light east winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon
before diminishing to less than 10 knots tonight.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...AR