171
FXUS61 KILN 230751
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
351 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Episodic showers and thunderstorms are expected through the end
of the work week and into the weekend. Temperatures are
expected to remain above normal through the weekend before a
stronger system impacts the Ohio Valley Sunday into Monday,
which will reduce temperatures to near normal at the beginning
of the next work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A cold front will lay out west to east across the southern
forecast area today where it will become quasi-stationary. A
couple of weak mid level disturbances, one moving from Missouri
to Kentucky this morning, and another, moving into southern
Indiana and southern Ohio late this afternoon and evening, will
bring a chance of showers and storms to the area, mainly south
of where the front lays out. Otherwise, it will remain
seasonably warm, and a little humid south of the front. Highs
will range from 75 to 80 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A chance of showers and storms will continue into the evening.
Then, as the aforementioned disturbance moves east and
instability wanes, pcpn should diminish and come to an end.
Quasi-stationary frontal boundary will slowly move north as a
warm front overnight. We could see some low clouds and some
patchy/areas of fog overnight, especially south of the front
given a light wind regime and high humidity. Lows will drop into
the lower 60s.

On Friday, weak mid level ridging will be across our region
during the morning, so dry weather is expected. Low clouds and
fog will lift during the morning. Our attention will then turn
to the west and northwest. Warm and humid air will advect north,
bringing at least moderate MLCAPE values to the region. Several
convective allowing models have been showing a potential MCS
complex developing across the Plains, moving east into our
region by late in the day or evening. For now, it appears this
system may be on a weakening trend as it enters our area.
However, given moderate instability, we could still see a strong
or severe storm in the late afternoon and into the evening
hours. Will mention this in the HWO. Otherwise, it will be warm
and humid with highs in the lower to perhaps mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The extended period will begin in a zonal flow pattern as
periodic pieces of shortwave energy push east across the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys. On Friday night, the first of these with
an associated line of showers and storms will push east through
the Ohio Valley. Most guidance shows this line will be decaying
as it lifts into the ridge over the East Coast.

A drying period looks to arrive on Saturday before a stronger
disturbance approaches Sunday. Guidance continues to show a
rather deep surface low tracking from eastern Kansas to southern
Wisconsin Sunday/Sunday night which would increase the
potential for strong to severe storms (increased vertical wind
profile, better forcing).

An upper trough moves into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley late
Monday into the mid week, finally bringing a return to near
normal or slightly below normal temperatures after an extended
warm spell.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will slow down and eventually lay out west to east
near the Ohio River by sunrise. Low level moisture ahead of the
front may bring a period of IFR/MVFR ceilings and some MVFR
visibilities. Winds will shift to the northwest/north, then
weaken and become light east/southeast during the morning hours.

For today, the frontal boundary will remain somewhat quasi-
stationary. An embedded mid level disturbance will ripple east
this morning, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms to
far southern locations (mainly along and south of the Ohio
River). For this afternoon, with daytime heating and the frontal
boundary in the vicinity of the region, along with another weak
mid level disturbance, will bring another chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Predominate conditions will be VFR but lower
conditions (MVFR/IFR) could occur in thunderstorms. Winds will
become light southerly.

For tonight, convection in the evening will wane through the
night as mid level disturbance moves off to the east and
instability diminishes. Weak frontal boundary will begin to
slowly move north as a warm front. Models suggest that another
round of MVFR/IFR ceilings and perhaps visibilities may develop
between 06Z and 12Z.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times through Sunday.
MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities possible Thursday morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Hickman