551
FXUS61 KILN 021941
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
341 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front moving into the area will washout tonight allowing
high pressure to build in. The high will keep the area
predominantly warm and dry into Tuesday. Showers and
thunderstorms will return midweek as a cold front approaches and
moves through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Weak surface low moving into the Tri-State as well as a weak
front pushing into northwest counties are both foci for showers,
although with minimal forcing, coverage of precipitation is
fairly low. Instability has been increasing as insolation has
increased a bit with breaks in the clouds. Cannot rule out a bit
of thunder with the somewhat better chance along and south of
the Ohio River. The chance of precipitation, albeit low, will
linger into the evening before ending.

Cloud forecast is more challenging. Satellite imagery does show
some improvement in recent hours and that trend is likely to
continue. But expect that substantial clearing may not come
about until well after sunset. This will leave lingering low
level moisture. Combined with light winds, expect these
conditions to lead to fog developing and eventually more low
clouds by daybreak. Guidance has been indicating that this is
all more likely along and south/east of I-71, but cannot rule
out some visibility restrictions in northwest counties as well.

Lows will mainly be in the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high will build in and then slide off to the east during
the period. Meanwhile moderate amplitude mid level ridging will
also develop. This will lead to dry and warmer conditions. Any
fog and stratus in the morning will eventually break and evolve
into some scattered cumulus. The cumulus will dissipate with the
loss of heating with just some high clouds Monday night. Highs
will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows in the lower to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper level trough and cold front will start approaching the Ohio
Valley on Tuesday into Tuesday night the northwest. Strengthening
southerly flow develops ahead of the disturbance leading to
increasing temperatures and moisture across the region. Highs are
forecast to spike into the middle to upper 80s by Tuesday afternoon
with humid conditions in place. Some instability should develop by
the afternoon which allows for afternoon/evening shower and
thunderstorm chances although coverage remains uncertain since
forcing and shear is weak. Muggy conditions and some rain chances
continue into Tuesday night due to persistent southerly flow.

The cold front and upper level trough arrives later in the day on
Wednesday. Showers and storms are expected since peak diurnal
instability appears at least moderately likely to overlap deep
moisture, shear, and forcing. The cold front will then progress to
the east Wednesday night thereby quickly reducing shower and storm
chances. Winds shift to the west behind the front and cooler air
arrives.

Below average temperatures and westerly winds persist through the
end of the week due to a long wave trough setting up over the Great
Lakes region. Multiple chances for showers will exist in this
synoptic setup as cold fronts and shortwaves rotate around the
trough axis.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low ceilings across the area will be lifting during the early
part of the TAF period as well as having breaks develop in the
cloud cover. There is a considerable amount of uncertainty
regarding the evolution of the clouds. It appears that most
sites will become VFR within a few hours either side of 00Z
except perhaps for the Columbus terminals. However, lingering
low level moisture and light winds will most likely result in
fog and in some cases stratus developing generally after 06Z.
This will result in IFR to LIFR conditions. After 12Z,
Visibility will improve first follow by ceilings lifting and
scattering late in the period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...