Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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496 FXUS61 KILN 082332 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 732 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak disturbance will keep a low threat for showers in the forecast tonight. Dry weather can be expected Sunday through Wednesday as high pressure settles slowly across the Ohio Valley. After a cool start Sunday through Tuesday, temperatures will rise back above normal on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... A weakening disturbance is tracking across Kentucky. Radar echoes have been virga for the most part. Expect mainly dry weather to continue through tonight, though a few light showers could occur as cloud bases fall overnight along a trough axis extending southwest from another disturbance crossing the Great Lakes. Cloud cover should allow relatively mild lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Dry weather is forecast to continue Sunday and Sunday night. A ridge of high pressure Sunday will be followed by a cold front Sunday night that will contain insufficient moisture for precip to occur. Mostly cloudy skies in the morning are expected to become mostly sunny as the high moves in. Temperatures will be slightly below normal with highs in the mid 70s to around 80. Readings Sunday night are forecast to fall a few more degrees below normal, with lows in the low to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... H5 trough is well-pronounced across the eastern CONUS to start the work week. Heights continue to lower throughout the day on Monday and allow for relatively cooler air to settle in. Under this persistent northwesterly flow regime, Monday will be the coolest day of the extended forecast period as locations near and north of I-70 could observe highs only reaching the upper 60s. Surface high pressure will help maintain dry conditions as we head into Tuesday. Between Tuesday and Wednesday, this H5 trough will begin to propagate eastward and exit our fa. Temperatures will start to trend warmer on Tuesday as the mean trough axis shifts eastward, but relatively dry air at the surface continues as dewpoints remain in the mid-40s to lower 50s. Subtle H5 height rises ensue on Wednesday. Warmer and humid air will gradually build back into the Ohio Valley region. By Thursday, the air mass will turn even hotter as highs could climb back into the 90s for some. There is some evidence amongst global models that a shortwave could eject through the Great Lakes region on Friday. However, there is uncertainty if this forcing will be able to spawn showers/storms far enough south to reach out CWA. Otherwise, expecting that the bulk of the forecast period to remain dry. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR will continue for the early part of the period with mid clouds lower just a bit with time. MVFR ceilings will then spread in ahead of a cold front that will cross the region between 06Z and 10Z. Most places will fall below 2kft. However, MVFR ceilings will not last long. Expect them to quickly pass through the area with a return to VFR and only a few mid clouds by 13Z. Winds will stay southerly until the front gets closer. Winds will veer to the northwest with the passage of the front. Expect sustained speeds to increase after 16Z with gusts developing. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible on Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...Clark AVIATION...