Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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371 FXUS61 KILN 071340 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 940 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the area through tonight, bringing dry but slightly below normal temperatures. A chance for showers and a few thunderstorms will return later Saturday into Sunday morning as a weak upper level disturbance moves through the Ohio Valley. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... Skies are clear this morning with high pressure centered to the west. In weak cyclonic low level flow and shallow moisture, expect to see some scattered cu development through late morning and into this afternoon. West to northwest winds will gust around 25 mph today in the relatively tight pressure gradient ahead of the high. Temperatures today will be a few degrees below normal with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Surface high pressure will build east across the Tennessee Valley through tonight. This will lead to mostly clear skies through much of the night although we may begin to see some higher level clouds spread in from the west late ahead of an approaching mid level short wave. This short wave will continue to move east across the Ohio Valley, but weaken through the day on Saturday. As a result, will only bring in slight chance pops across the southwest through the afternoon. Highs on Saturday will range from the mid 70s southwest to the upper 70s in the northeast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... This period will be largely characterized by troughing and cooler than normal temperatures, and the lack of hazardous weather. Near the end of the period, a warming trend to above normal will settle in. To wrap up the weekend, an elongated longwave trough will be stretched through the entirety of southern Canada, extending southward into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Weak ripples within the zonal flow support a mention of rain Sunday. On Monday, a deeper shortwave will attempt to dig into the Ohio Valley, supplying a chance for more even cooler conditions. These cooler conditions extend into Tuesday. Through the middle to end of the week, a ridge attempts to build into the Ohio Valley, triggering a warming trend back into the 80s. A limiting factor is tied to a deepening trough which may delay the onset of a deeper/stronger ridge expected for the weekend into early next week. Currently, 00Z GEFS and ECMWF ENS have trended slightly less in magnitude with the ridge on Thursday/Friday, increasing uncertainty at how quickly the warm up will arrive. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Scattered cu is expected to develop late this morning into this afternoon in continued weak cyclonic low level flow. The cu will dissipate as we head into this evening as high pressure briefly builds into the region. High and mid level clouds will be on the increase later tonight and into the day on Saturday ahead of an approaching mid level short wave. West winds will be breezy this afternoon with gusts to around 25 knots possible before decreasing this evening. OUTLOOK...MVFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Saturday night and Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...Coniglio/JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...McGinnis AVIATION...JGL