Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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047 FXUS61 KILN 151920 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 320 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered northeast of the area will weaken. A low will move northwest from the Atlantic coast into the central Appalachians before weakening mid week. This will bring an increase in clouds and at least a chance of some rain, mainly from northeast Kentucky into central Ohio. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Persistent high pressure will keep clear skies across the region overnight. Lows will drop into the 50s in most areas. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Surface ridge axis will shift northwards a bit during the period as low pressure moves northwest from the Carolina coast. There will still be a lot of dry air in place on Monday, but there could be a bit of diurnal cumulus. Temperatures will not be quite as warm but still well above normal. Clouds will increase from the southeast late Monday into Monday night, mainly in the mid to upper levels, so this may be thin through much of that time frame. With dry low levels, lows will be able to fall back into the 50s once again. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... On Tuesday morning, an upper low will be somewhere southeast of the Ohio Valley, gradually moving into the area and bringing moisture to the region. The persistent upper ridge and surface high over the northeastern states will be weakening as it exits into the Atlantic. The forecast trend for the ILN CWA has continued to be for the low to move further into the area, and more quickly than in previous forecast cycles. While the GFS remains a particularly aggressive solution with regards to northwestward extent and precipitation, it is hard to ignore that other models have been catching up to its depiction over the past few days. PoPs will remain in the chance category at most, as the showers may be somewhat scattered, and mostly on the lighter side. Still, a few heavier pockets (and maybe an embedded thunderstorm here and there) could occur. PoPs will be greatest on Wednesday, with lesser chances on Tuesday and Thursday. The other impact for the forecast is that temperatures are a little lower than were forecast in previous days, with highs Tue-Wed-Thu now in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Another area of high pressure will begin to build into the area after the low weakens and shifts off to the southeast again. While the timing of the departure of the low is uncertain, the high may be building in by Friday, and more likely for over the weekend. This will bring drier conditions again, and an increase in temperatures to the middle to upper 80s. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR will continue. There may be a few cumulus late in the period, otherwise clear skies. Winds will remain easterly around 10 kt during the day and closer to 5 kt at night. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...