651
FXUS61 KILN 202353
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
753 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance will offer isolated showers tonight. High
pressure will bring a brief return to warm and dry conditions
on Saturday before an unsettled pattern arrives starting Sunday
afternoon with a chance for showers and thunderstorms continuing through
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
No major changes were made to the evening updated forecast. Did
not see fog as an overly probable scenario overnight given a
significant dewpoint depression. Will look a little closer in
the next few hours and expect to remove it with a future update.


Cloud cover will increase ahead of the line of dissipating
showers and bottom out with some lower sc before lifting
significantly in favor of a passing cu before clearing, likely
before daybreak for another sunny day and unseasonably warm
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
After a bit of patchy fog to start the day, surface high
pressure will briefly build into the lower Great Lakes on
Saturday through Saturday night. Mid-level ridging will also
extend back northeast into our area keeping us in a warm and dry
air mass. High temperatures will once again reach to around 90
degrees, which is 13-14 degrees above normal for this time of
year. Lows Saturday night will remain in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An unsettled weather pattern will be in place through the long term
with daily precipitation chances. There is decent model agreement in
the Sunday through Wednesday timeframe and therefore confidence is
higher.  Thursday and Friday has more variability and therefore kept
precipitation chances lower during that time.

Temperatures on Sunday will be warm in advance of the rain moving
into the region.  Cooler temperatures will be in place for the
remainder of the week with the daily precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Broken line of showers with 10kft cloud deck streaming se and
over TAF sites this evening will continue to move slowly ese
this evening. Expect -ra to pass over DAY first starting in the
next 2-3 hours and last for an hour, though a two hour time
frame was noted given the uncertainty of start/end time.
Likewise, CVG/LUK/ILN look to have a start around 05Z but only
went with a 1 hour tempo group given the lesser chance of any
precip in these areas towards midnight. Left CMH/LCK out of any
-ra as the northern section of this line is not expected to hold
 together in any fashion to reach central Ohio tonight.

Kept VFR conditions with any precip activity.

Most models are sparing with amounts and this seems to be the
trend with the line weakening and rapidly diminishing lightning
strikes. Do not expect any showers/-ra to exhibit lightning when
these showers pass over/nearby in the next 2-5 hours. A dry
forecast is not necessarily out of the question, but a
consistent line movement had me opt to include it with some
timing, and VFR conditions shouldn`t make much if any
difference.

Winds through the period will end up being <8kt but a lighter
overnight speed will pick up in the latter morning hours from
the wnw and drop again towards 00Z tomorrow.

OUTLOOK...Hazardous weather is not expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Franks