401
FXUS61 KILN 071903
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
303 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue tonight as high pressure persists. A
disturbance moving from the west will bring a chance of showers
and possibly a thunderstorm Saturday and Sunday. High pressure
and dry air return for Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
High pressure centered to the south will provide dry weather and
mainly clear skies tonight. Gusty west winds are expected to
diminish to under 6 knots overnight. Below normal lows in the
50s are forecast by 6 am.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A mid-level disturbance and surface low will be tracking across
the Central Ohio Valley. The disturbance will be weakening as it
encounters dry air and high pressure in place. A few showers
and perhaps a thunderstorm or two may occur out of the modest
moisture, convergence and lift that are associated with this
system. The shower threat begins mainly in western locations on
Saturday, shifting south to the Ohio River Saturday night as the
system moves east.

Highs are forecast to range from the mid 70s west, up to around
80 east. Insulating cloud cover should allow above normal lows
in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Near or just below normal temperatures are expected as we end the
weekend and continue into the next work week. This is mainly driven
by the synoptic pattern aloft, with troughing present in the jet
stream. This trough will amplify as we progress through the day on
Sunday as PVA ejects southward from Canada. There will be subtle
changes in the overall structure and strength of this troughing
feature, but this trough will remain in place as we head into the
beginning of the work week. Given the persistent northwesterly flow,
drier air will also accompany this feature, leading to dewpoints in
the upper 40s to middle 50s across the CWA.

This main troughing feature will propagate eastward by late Tuesday
into Wednesday. The surface response appears to be slow on
Wednesday, but we will begin to see a slight uptick in temperature
and dewpoint values. A more notable uptick in heat/humidity values
is expected on Thursday as H5 height rises continue.

Drier conditions are favored during the majority of the extended
forecast period, but a couple of days with a low chance of PoPs
remains for portions of our CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR is expect to persist through the forecast. Mainly clear
skies and gusty winds are forecast this afternoon. Winds calm
down while clouds increase slightly tonight. For Saturday, a
weakening disturbance moving from the west toward the Ohio
River will cause mid clouds to move in. CVG may see some low
clouds near the end of their 30 hour TAF. Kept showers out due
to expected scattered nature. Winds from the south to southwest
will average close to 10 knots Saturday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Saturday
night and Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...Coniglio