618
FXUS61 KILN 281357
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
957 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move off to the east today. Southerly flow
around the departing high will bring warmer, more humid air back
into the region. Deeper moisture is forecast to interact with
embedded mid level disturbances tonight and Saturday, increasing
the chance of showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will then
move southeast through the area Saturday night into Sunday.
This front will be followed by high pressure for the beginning
of the new week. Temperatures will cool down and humidity levels
will drop with the Canadian airmass.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure will gradually retreat eastward today. Winds will
shift towards the south-southeast, ushering in a slightly
warmer air mass today. Clouds will continue to spill in from the
west ahead of the next system, but conditions will remain dry
through the daylight hours.

Highs will climb into the middle 80s to lower 90s. With
dewpoints creeping slightly higher today into the upper 60s to
near 70, locations along/south of the OH River will observe heat
indices near the middle to upper 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Embedded mid level disturbances, some perhaps convectively
induced, will affect our forecast area tonight into Saturday.
These features will interact with deeper moisture (pwats 2+
inches) along with a low level jet to produce showers and
thunderstorms. For tonight, showers and storms will be most
numerous along and north of I-70 where the low level convergence
will be focused. Chances will decrease south of there as one
moves south of the Ohio River. Some locally heavy rain will be
possible in the northern locations. Given the increase in
clouds, southerly wind, and increasing dewpoints, overnight
lows will only fall into the lower to mid 70s. On Saturday, the
potential exists for some strong to severe storms to occur in
the afternoon and evening. Some of this will dependent on how
morning convection/clouds linger into the afternoon before
redevelopment takes place. CAMs suggest that main redevelopment
will be more focused over our eastern locations where a mid
level disturbance will interact with perhaps a prefrontal low
level trof axis to produce scattered to numerous showers/storms.
Moderate CAPE (dewpoints in the mid 70s, temperatures in the
mid 80s to near 90) along with moderate deep layered shear will
be conducive for sustained storm structure. Damaging winds
appear to be the main severe weather threat as mid level lapse
rates will be poor for large hail. Also, SPC HREF indicates some
rotating storms will be possible, which also keeps an isolated
risk of tornadoes possible. And as stated, the moist airmass
will result in locally heavy rainfall. Heat indices in the
southern half of the CWFA may approach 100 degrees Saturday
afternoon, but confidence is still somewhat uncertain, being
dependent on how much sunshine can occur during the day.

For Saturday night, prefrontal convection will move off to the
east while the main cold front pushes southeast across the
forecast area. Forcing with the front itself doesn`t look
impressive and stronger lift will be positioned farther north in
Canada. Nonetheless, will have to maintain a chance of
showers/storms until frontal passage. Lows will range from the
mid 60s northwest to the lower 70s southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
After a cold front and isolated showers and thunderstorms move
east early Sunday, high pressure settling slowly over the Great
Lakes is forecast to provide dry weather Sunday afternoon
through Tuesday. A boundary dropping from the northwest will be
the focus for showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of the
period. Due to the slow moving character of the boundary, and
the likelihood for deep moisture advection along the boundary,
heavy rain will be possible.

Temperatures start relatively cool, with highs in the mid 70s
to mid 80s expected on Sunday and in the mid 70s to low 80s
Monday. Warm advection on the return flow around the high will
boost readings to the mid and upper 80s to low 90s Tuesday and
Wednesday. Repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms along
with cloud cover may limit highs to the mid and upper 80s on
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The center of surface high pressure across the eastern Great
Lakes this morning will move off the New England coast by this
evening. For today, low level flow will veer to a southerly
direction. Some late day cumulus clouds may form near the Ohio
River, otherwise, SCT to LCL BKN mid and high level clouds can
be expected. Winds will be from the south around 10 knots.

For tonight, embedded mid level disturbances in a west/southwest
flow aloft will interact with increasing deep moisture and a
low level jet. This will first bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms this evening. Then, by late tonight, showers and
embedded thunderstorms will become more prevalent, mainly along
and north of I-70 (KDAY to KCMH/KLCK) where the low level
convergence will be more focused. MVFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR
visibilities will be possible in thunderstorms. South winds near
10 knots will gust up to 20 knots at times overnight.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday into Saturday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Hickman