951
FXUS63 KILX 071744
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1244 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy northwest winds with gusts of 25 to 35 mph develop by
  this afternoon, posing a threat for blowing dust.

- A decaying thunderstorm complex will bring our next chance of
  rain late tonight into Saturday morning.

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures will continue into
  early next week, with a warming trend by the end of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Sunny skies prevail across central Illinois this morning courtesy
of high pressure anchored over the Plains. West-northwest winds
have increased and are currently gusting 15-25mph. Much like
yesterday, deep-layer mixing up to about 8000-9000ft is expected,
which will help boost surface gusts into the 25-35mph range.
Afternoon highs will top out in the lower 80s...with middle 80s
south of I-70.

Barnes

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Water vapor imagery early this morning shows a deep upper trough
centered over the Northern Great Lakes Region, with northwest flow
positioned over the Midwest states. Breezy northwest winds will be
seen once again today as deep mixing up to ~800 mb sets up, tapping
into stronger winds aloft. Gusts between 25 and 35 mph seem
reasonable, with the highest probabilities for 30 mph or greater
gusts being near/north of I-74. Blowing dust was reported in spots
yesterday, with similar conditions possible today. A cooperative
observer in Hoopeston (Vermilion Co) noted that dust was blowing
pretty good on Thursday despite receiving over an inch of rain the
day prior. This could lead to reduced visibility when traveling,
especially on north to south oriented roadways.

A MCS will develop over the central High Plains later today and
track east-southeast toward the Middle Mississippi Valley overnight.
Precipitation should start to enter west-central Illinois shortly
after midnight and spread east through the morning hours of
Saturday. Little to no instability will keep thunder chances <20% as
it works through. Additional storms, some severe, look to develop
along a remnant outflow boundary Saturday afternoon, but CAMs
suggest this largely remaining south of the county warning area
where better instability is expected. A cold front will approach
from the northwest Saturday evening, bringing a few non-severe
showers and storms.

Temperatures stay near or slightly below normal through early next
week underneath northwest flow aloft. Occasional chances for
precipitation will be possible with any upper shortwave, though
details on where and when remain uncertain. Upper ridging will
amplify over the western CONUS by the middle of next week and spill
eastward late next week, bringing the return of more summer-like
heat and humidity.

NMA

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

NW winds will gust 23-28kt for the next few hours before the gusts
subside by around 22z. As the pressure gradient relaxes and the
atmosphere decouples, winds will become light/variable after
sunset...before becoming S and increasing to 10-15kt by Saturday
morning. Skies will initially be clear: however, mid-level clouds
currently poised upstream across eastern Nebraska/western Iowa
will filter into the area this evening. Models continue to show
one or more clusters of convection firing across Nebraska during
the afternoon, then tracking southeastward and weakening considerably
tonight. Most guidance suggests the bulk of the showers will skirt
central Illinois to the S/SW late tonight into early Saturday
morning. Have added predominant showers at KSPI after 11z and at
KDEC after 13z. Have only mentioned VCSH at the remaining terminals.
Clouds/visbys will be VFR at the beginning of the event: however,
CAMs show ceilings lowering to MVFR at all sites between 11z and
15z Sat.

Barnes

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$