620
FXUS63 KILX 061952
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
252 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  The chances for measurable rainfall are increasing late Friday
   night into Saturday morning: however, the severe weather risk
   remains very low (less than 5%).

-  Near to slightly below normal temperatures will prevail for the
   next several days...before a warming trend brings summer-like
   readings in the middle to upper 80s by the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Northwesterly winds will continue to gust between 20 and 30mph
across much of the KILX CWA for the balance of the afternoon...with
locations along/north of a Macomb to Bloomington line observing
occasional gusts of 35 to 40mph. Once diurnal mixing decreases
toward sunset, the gustiness will subside and winds will eventually
drop to less than 10mph across the board by mid-evening. Forecast
soundings show a similarly deep mixing layer up to around 8000ft
developing on Friday, so am expecting another breezy day with
gusts of 25-30mph common across the area. Lows tonight will drop
into the middle to upper 50s, while highs on Friday top out in the
upper 70s and lower 80s.


Barnes

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Next Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

With deep upper troughing anchored over Ontario and the Great
Lakes and upper ridging building over the Desert Southwest,
central Illinois will remain locked in a northwesterly flow
pattern through the upcoming weekend. A short-wave trough embedded
within the flow will ripple southeastward across the Plains Friday
night. Aided by a 40-45kt nocturnal low-level jet oriented
northeastward from the Texas panhandle, a cluster of thunderstorms
will develop across southeast Nebraska, then track southeastward
toward the lower Ohio River Valley. The exact placement of this
convective development still remains somewhat uncertain: however,
the 12z Jun 6 model consensus has shifted it north of previous
forecasts. As a result, have added 30-50 PoPs along/southwest of
a Macomb to Springfield line late Friday night...then have spread
them across the entire CWA Saturday morning. Instability will
initially be quite meager, so have only mentioned showers with the
first wave arriving late Friday night into Saturday morning.
Meanwhile further northwest, a second northern-stream short-wave
will push a weak cold front into Illinois Saturday afternoon/evening.
A modest increase in instability is progged, with NAM MUCAPE
values increasing to 200-500J/kg. Have therefore mentioned a
chance for thunder with any late day activity that forms.

Once the front passes, a cooler/drier airmass will return and rain
chances will be pushed into the Ohio River Valley by late Saturday
night into Sunday. After that, cool and mostly dry weather is
anticipated through Tuesday before upper heights rise and an
appreciable warming trend gets underway by next Wednesday/Thursday.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period.
Other than a period of FEW-SCT diurnal Cu early this afternoon,
skies will remain clear. NW winds will gust to around 25kt this
afternoon...with the gusts subsiding by around 23z. Winds will
drop below 10kt across the board by mid-evening, but will once
again ramp up after sunrise Friday due to deep-layer mixing.
Forecast soundings and numeric guidance support NW gusts of
20-25kt after 15z Fri.

Barnes

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$