746
FXUS63 KILX 241945
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
245 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Stronger showers and thunderstorms to continue into the evening
  hours. Some storms could become severe with damaging winds,
  large hail, and an isolated tornado.

- Saturday will be dry and warm. Highs in the 70s, clear skies,
  and dry weather makes for a beautiful Saturday.

- There is a 80-100% chance of thunderstorms on Sunday. These
  storms have the potential to be severe, with an enhanced risk
  (level 3 of 5) for severe weather that day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

The storms this afternoon continue to have a severe aspect to them,
with damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado being
possible. They are quite chaotic in motion and where they are
initiating. There are multiple boundaries interacting with each
other. They are seemingly merging to create a linear formation and
will move off to the east towards the Indiana border this evening.
There is a flooding risk with these storms as they are moving slower
and the axis of higher PWAT values is across the CWA, east of I-55.
The severe risk should subside before midnight tonight.

Saturday a surface high pressure will set up over the area,
providing us a brief breather before the next round of active
weather arrives Sunday morning. There is a low pressure system
bringing frontal passages through the region on Sunday with a risk
of severe weather along with the cold front.

A warm front will quickly move north through central Illinois early
Sunday morning, placing us in the warm sector. This should allow us
to destabilize and break any cap that is in place ahead of the
cold front. Highs that day are in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with
dewpoints near 70. The GFS is showing about 3000-4000 J/kg of
SBCAPE, 40-55 knots effective bulk wind shear, and very steep mid-
level lapse rates of ~9 C/km by 18z Sunday. DCAPE is showing
around 1000 J/kg on forecast NAM and GFS soundings at that same
time. This round of severe weather will have an all hazards risk,
damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two.

Monday (Memorial Day) has a 20-30% of any showers that day but will
be mainly dry. However, it will be quite windy. So those on the lake
or tent camping should stay aware of any stronger wind gusts that
may occur Sunday night into Monday. There is a 50-70% chance of wind
gusts 40+ mph overnight. Temperatures look to be in the mid 70s for
the holiday.

Further passed Monday, highs slowly warm back up but stay in the mid
70s to low 80s through the week.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect the central IL
airports through early evening with MVFR conditions at times with
heavier showers. Breezy south winds 12-18 kts with gusts 20-28
kts will occur (stronger gusts possible with thunderstorms),
except an outflow boundary from this mornings MCS giving north to
NE wind direction early this afternoon. A cold front will push
eastward over central IL early overnight with winds shifting NW to
north and averaging around 10 kts. Showers will end after cold
frontal passage and clouds to scatter out during overnight from
west to east with fair skies on Saturday morning as weak high
pressure settles into IL.

07

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$