Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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247 FXUS63 KILX 071016 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 516 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy northwest winds with gusts of 25 to 35 mph develop by this afternoon, posing a threat for blowing dust. - A decaying thunderstorm complex will bring our next chance of rain late tonight into Saturday morning. - Near to slightly below normal temperatures will continue into early next week, with a warming trend by the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Water vapor imagery early this morning shows a deep upper trough centered over the Northern Great Lakes Region, with northwest flow positioned over the Midwest states. Breezy northwest winds will be seen once again today as deep mixing up to ~800 mb sets up, tapping into stronger winds aloft. Gusts between 25 and 35 mph seem reasonable, with the highest probabilities for 30 mph or greater gusts being near/north of I-74. Blowing dust was reported in spots yesterday, with similar conditions possible today. A cooperative observer in Hoopeston (Vermilion Co) noted that dust was blowing pretty good on Thursday despite receiving over an inch of rain the day prior. This could lead to reduced visibility when traveling, especially on north to south oriented roadways. A MCS will develop over the central High Plains later today and track east-southeast toward the Middle Mississippi Valley overnight. Precipitation should start to enter west-central Illinois shortly after midnight and spread east through the morning hours of Saturday. Little to no instability will keep thunder chances <20% as it works through. Additional storms, some severe, look to develop along a remnant outflow boundary Saturday afternoon, but CAMs suggest this largely remaining south of the county warning area where better instability is expected. A cold front will approach from the northwest Saturday evening, bringing a few non-severe showers and storms. Temperatures stay near or slightly below normal through early next week underneath northwest flow aloft. Occasional chances for precipitation will be possible with any upper shortwave, though details on where and when remain uncertain. Upper ridging will amplify over the western CONUS by the middle of next week and spill eastward late next week, bringing the return of more summer-like heat and humidity. NMA && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning) Issued at 516 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Breezy northwest winds will gust between 20-30 kt by this afternoon, then become light and variable overnight. High clouds increase going into this evening ahead of a decaying thunderstorm complex that will bring rain showers to most of the area late tonight into Saturday morning. Flight conditions look to stay VFR through at least 12Z Saturday, but will turn MVFR around or shortly after that. NMA && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$