Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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994 FXUS63 KILX 021542 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1042 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Today will be a dry and nice day. Highs near 80 with partly cloudy skies. - Monday through Wednesday night have several rounds of showers and thunderstorms on deck to move through. Some strong to severe thunderstorms could develop Monday/Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1042 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 The latest surface map shows an area of high pressure is centered over northern Illinois with a weak nearly stationary cool front draped along the Ohio Valley this morning. Low stratus blankets a majority of the area with pockets of clearing already occuring in western Illinois. Clouds should continue to gradually scatter out some from west to east today, allowing temperatures to warm close to seasonal normals for early June. Light radar returns noted in eastern Illinois tied to some subtle lift over the cloud bearing layer may trigger a few isolated sprinkles through this afternoon, but shouldn`t amount to much precipitation. NMA && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Today, slight ridging builds over our western CWA. There is some patchy fog across central Illinois this morning. It should dissipate as the sun rises. This will give us a nice, calm, and pretty day to enjoy. Highs near 80, lows in the low-to-mid 60s, and partly cloudy skies are expected today. The next round of rain comes Monday through late Wednesday. The forcing for Monday into Tuesday`s event comes from a shortwave moving overhead. Wednesday has cold front expected to pass through the Midwest extending out of a low in Canada. Monday`s and Tuesday`s risk for severe weather is looking a bit better now, with Tuesday possibly more so. MONDAY MESOSCALE DETAILS --- Highs in the mid-to-upper 80s and dew points near 70 will be in place. MUCAPE by the afternoon is more than decent (1500-3000 J/kg). Surface to 500mb bulk shear is basically nonexistent (0-20 knots). Mid-level lapse rates are around 7 C/km by 21z. Plenty of bouyancy and mid level lapse rates could support short lived strong to severe thunderstorms, with hail as a primary threat. A wind threat exists when a storm collapses and pushes its gust front out. After the cold front Wednesday, there could be a couple chances for showers and/or thunderstorms over the weekend. More details will be unveiled as we move into the middle of the week. High temps will hang in the 80s through most of this new week. Copple && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning) Issued at 557 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Some sites have longer TAF due to the ceiling changes through the morning. There are LIFR to VFR conditions across central IL this morning. Sites will continue to bounce from IFR to MVFR early in the period. Patchy dense fog, and low ceilings are playing a big role. By mid morning (15z), the fog should dissipate as the sun rises and peaks through the low clouds. The low cloud deck will make its way out of the area by the afternoon (18-22z), starting with SPI/PIA and ending with CMI. By 22z, VFR conditions will be in place for all sites. Copple && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$