207
FXUS63 KILX 162019
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
319 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Summer-like warmth will continue across central and southeast IL through
  the weekend with highs ranging from the middle 80s to near 90.

- Precipitation chances return this weekend into early next week
  with a series of frontal systems approaching IL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

A Rex Block upper level pattern will continue across the country
rest of this week, keeping it warm and fairly dry over central and
southeast IL. Large high pressure ridge extending from New England
westward across the Great Lakes region and into northeast and
central IL will remain in place for a few more days, keeping
similar weather conditions going across the area. One thing that
has changed is the lower dewpoints in the 50s over much of
central/se IL, ranging from upper 40s in Danville and Paris to
60-65F from Quincy, Macomb and Galesburg west. Partly to mostly
sunny skies prevailed over much of area at mid afternoon with few
to scattered cumulus clouds and patches of cirrus clouds. Nearly
full sunshine was from Champaign and Terre Haute ne in the drier
air mass. Very warm temps were mostly in the upper 80s to near 90F
with mid 80s at Galesburg.

Diurnally driven cumulus clouds to dissipate after sunset leaving
fair skies tonight with light east winds. Lows tonight in the
upper 50s and lower 60s, coolest in eastern IL. Latest CAMs show
patchy fog forming overnight west of IL over parts of MO and Iowa
with little or no fog over our CWA.

A tropical system near the NC/SC coast will track nw toward
Charlotte NC by sunset Tue and over the central Appalachians on
Wed. Its rains will stay well east/se of Indiana and much of its
high clouds staying se of CWA during midweek. Highs Tue-Fri should
reach the upper 80s with some cities approaching 90F with a fair
amount of sunshine. Lows Tue night in the mid to upper 50s, around
60F Wed night and low to mid 60s thereafter.

A strong mid/upper level trof with 560 dm 500 mb cutoff low over
central CA to eject a piece of energy ne into the upper MS river
valley Thu night/Fri morning. We have just a slight chance of
showers over the IL river valley, mainly nw of the IL river
overnight Thu night. We have slight chance of convection again
mainly nw of the IL river Sat and Sat evening, with 20-30% pops
pushing eastward over central IL overnight Sat night into Monday
as another piece of energy ejects ne from the central plains. Warm
temps in the mid to upper 80s Sat with se IL near 90F, cool a bit
into the low to mid 80s early next week, mildest in southeast IL
due to more cloud cover and some shower chances.

07

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

VFR conditions are forecast to continue across the central IL
airports through 18Z/1 pm Tuesday. A Rex Block pattern is keeping
surface and upper level high pressure ridge near IL next few days,
and drier air in place to limit diurnal cumulus cloud develop to
few-scattered. Will also of patches of cirrus clouds passing by.
East to SE winds 5-10 kts this afternoon to be light east to ENE
after sunset tonight, and east to ESE on Tuesday staying under 10
kts. No fog expected overnight due to dry air mass and soils in
place.

07

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$