012
FXUS63 KILX 152020
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
320 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Summer-like warmth continues through the week with highs peaking
  in the middle 80s to near 90 degrees with a fair amount of
  sunshine.

- An isolated shower or thunderstorm (20% chance) is possible into
  early evening from Galesburg to Jacksonville west, but most of
  central and southeast IL will stay dry and warm this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A 1026 mb high pressure ridge over southern New England and
ridging westward across the Great Lakes region and into central
and northeast IL was bringing in drier air into the CWA. Dewpoints
ranged from the mid to upper 50s in eastern IL, to the low to mid
60s from I-55 west. Warm temps were in the mid to upper 80s over
CWA with Springfield at 90F. Scattered cumulus clouds and tufts
of cirrus clouds was giving partly sunny skies overnight at mid
afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms were sw of I-64
near St Louis. Aloft a strong 590 dm 500 mb high pressure was over
the eastern Great Lakes and ridging westward toward Lake MI and
ne IL.

A few of the latest CAMs models like the HRRR shows isolated
convection developing over west central IL near Scott and
Schuyler county late this afternoon and early evening and sets up
again Monday afternoon but further west of CWA. Continue slight
pops until sunset from Jacksonville west and kept Monday dry
across area. Latest CAMs also not showing much fog development
over CWA overnight and mainly over river valleys in MO and
possibly lower IL river valley. Temps a bit cooler tonight with
lower dewpoints in area today, with lows in the lower 60s, with a
few upper 50s in east central IL. Very warm again Monday with
highs in the upper 80s to near 90F and dewpoints slipping into the
mid to upper 50s, with lower 50s possible in east central IL.
Partly to mostly sunny skies Monday with more cumulus clouds over
the IL river valley.

A tropical system off the southeast Atlantic coast will track nw
into the central Carolinas later Monday, with a cutoff mid/upper
level low over the central Appalachians Tue night and Wed and
weakening and pulling away into mid Atlantic States Thu. Blocking
Rex upper level pattern keeps this system well east/se of IL with
its precipitation likely east of Indiana next few days. Ample
sunshine Tue with highs in the upper 80s with dewpoints in the low
to mid 50s and light ENE winds.

A strong upper level trof along the West Coast to slowly emerge
over the Rockies by mid to late week and have a frontal boundary
moving into the upper MS river valley and Central Plains by weeks
end. It`s convection appears to stay west and nw of CWA through
at least Saturday. Blended forecast has 20-30% chance of
convection moving into the IL river valley Sat night and Sunday
(next weekend). Highs in the mid to upper 80s Wed and upper 80s to
near 90F Thu through Saturday.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6-10 Day outlook for Sep
21-25 has 70-80% chance of above normal temperatures over central
IL. CPC`s 8-14 Day outlook for Sep 23-29 has 55-60% chance of
above normal temperatures over central IL, so looks like September
will end up warmer than normal and likely drier than normal too
as drought likely expands northward from southern IL.

07

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

High pressure will remain centered over the eastern Great Lakes
through the period with ridging extending back across the Midwest.
East to southeast winds will prevail across central illinois
through the period, with winds during the day peaking around 10kt
and dropping to around 5kt or less overnight. VFR conditions are
expected through the period.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$