545
FXUS63 KILX 142006
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
306 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally dry weather is expected through much of the new week,
  with summer like temperatures continuing, with above normal
  highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

The remnant low pressure from Francine was over central MS and its
convection was well south of CWA over far southern IL and areas
south of there. A narrow band of light showers was over western WI
into far eastern IA and was nw of IL. Trends have been drier with
a drier boundary layer arriving from the east and subsidence from
large surface high pressure ridge over New England and ridging
westward over the Great Lakes region. Scattered cumulus clouds
where over central and sw CWA with just few fair wx cumulus clouds
over ne CWA and Wabash river valley. Temps at mid afternoon were
in the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints still a bit muggy in 60s,
ranging from lower 60s near the Indiana border to upper 60s from
I-55 west with Galesburg dewpoint at 70F. Heat indices were in the
upper 80s to around 90F, so a summerlike afternoon across central
and southeast IL.

A strong 588-591 dm 500 mb high pressure ridge over the central
Great Lakes and extending from New England back toward IL will
continue to ridge over IL much of the upcoming week. Chances of
showers and isolated thunderstorms should stay sw of central IL
over parts of MO into Sunday. Any fog development appears to set
up overnight sw of CWA over sw IL into MO as well. Lows overnight
in the mid 60s, with highs Sunday in the upper 80s.

A tropical system off the Carolina coast is projected to track
toward the central Carolina coast on Monday and nw into the
central Appalachians/mid Atlantic States on Tue, keeping its
convection east of Indiana. A mid/upper level trof along the West
Coast to deepen over the Rockies and stay out west much of the
week with a blocking upper level pattern prevailing over the US. A
frontal boundary to move slowly into the upper Midwest and central
plains late this week and possible bring next chance of convection
to IL later next weekend. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
6-10 day outlook for Sep 20-24th had 70-80% chance of above
normal temperatures over CWA. CPC 8-14 day outlook for Sep 22-28th
had 55-65% chance of above normal temperatures over CWA.

07

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

VFR conditions will persist through this TAF cycle as a ridge of
high pressure works to keep fair weather conditions in place.
Mostly clear skies this afternoon will yield to increasing high-
level clouds this evening beneath light southeast winds.

MJA

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$