Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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845 FXUS63 KILX 101711 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1211 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Summer-like temperatures return Wednesday through early next week. Heat indices will climb into the 90s to near 100 on Thursday and again on Sunday into early next week. - Our next chance (30-50%) for showers and storms will be Thursday into Thursday night as a cold front drops through the area. A few of these storms could be strong to severe. && .UPDATE... Issued at 950 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 A broken stratus deck is shifting SE across the area this morning, but should eventually transition to scattered Cu by early afternoon. Minor edits were made to the sky cover forecast to better capture the current conditions. Otherwise, no forecast changes were necessary at this time. With high temperatures in the low to mid 70s today, and a warm up to above normal temps expected late this week into the extended forecast, today will wind up being one of the coolest days in June. Erwin && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 216 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 An upper shortwave trough is noted on water vapor imagery over Wisconsin early this morning. A weak front associated with this wave is stretched from northern Illinois northwestward into southern Minnesota. This front will continue to sag south today, bringing a period of low stratus to the area to start the day. The cloud cover will hold temperatures down a bit, with highs looking to only reach the low to middle 70s. Surface ridging nosing in from the west will push the front south of the area later this afternoon, parting way to mostly clear skies going into tonight. The surface high will center itself from the middle Mississippi Valley into the lower Great Lakes Region overnight, allowing winds to become light. Efficient radiational cooling will send temperatures as low as the middle 40s to low 50s. Although this is pretty chilly for June standards, we will still be a good 5-10 degrees warmer than record lows for June 11. By the middle of the week, upper ridging over the western CONUS will spill eastward into the central US as a few upper waves work to flatten it out. Flow aloft will become more zonal as mid-level heights rise overhead. Temperatures will return back to summer-like values on Wednesday, with even warmer and more humid conditions building by the end of the week into the weekend as another upper ridge over the southwest US gets kicked eastward. Temperatures will range from the upper 80s to middle 90s Thursday through early next week. Lower dewpoints behind a cold front will bring some brief relief from the humidity on Friday and Saturday, but otherwise expect heat indices to range from the 90s to near 100 Thursday through early next week. Precipitation chances look to return later this week as an upper wave "ridge rider" works through the Great Lakes Region Thursday night into Friday. A cold front tied to this wave will approach central Illinois area later in the day on Thursday, bringing our next chance (30-50%) for showers and storms. Forecast guidance shows instability ahead of the front becoming moderately strong (up to 2500 J/kg) with favorable wind shear with the arrival of the front. The potential for a few strong to severe storms exists, with the highest probabilities being west of the Illinois River. Precipitation chances outside of the frontal passage Thursday night become more uncertain going into the weekend, though occasional upper waves could bring additional chances for precipitation. NMA && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 A stratus deck, which was bewteen 2-3 kft this AM, is starting to scatter out and lift above 3 kft. VFR conditions are expected to be predominant through the 18z TAF period. Winds will be northerly today, but become light and variable tonight as high pressure shifts into the area. Into Tuesday, light southwesterly winds develop. Erwin && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$