Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
227 FXUS63 KIND 310122 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 922 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another night with lows near 50 tonight. - Showers and a few storms expected Saturday. - Warming trend going into next week with periodic storm chances. && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 922 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Spectacular late spring evening in progress across central Indiana with clear skies and comfortable temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s as we just pass sunset. The forecast is in excellent shape for overnight. High pressure remains the primary feature across the region and will keep clear skies and light winds across the forecast area. Lows will bottom out primarily in the lower and mid 50s by daybreak Friday although a few spots may sneak into the upper 40s over eastern counties. Zone and grid updates out. && .SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)... Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Expect another beautiful day ahead with temperatures in the 70s as surface high pressure remains centered over the region. This combined with dewpoints in the 40s will make it feel very comfortable. Current satellite imagery shows little to no cloud cover across Indiana due to strong subsidence. Mostly clear skies should continue through the period, but some diurnal cu will develop this afternoon once convective temperatures in the low-mid 70s are reached. Surface high pressure overhead will keep the pressure gradient very weak resulting in light winds. Quiet conditions persist into tonight with the upper ridging and surface high pressure still centered over the region. Guidance shows the surface high gradually shifting eastward late today into tonight which will allow winds to become more easterly. Expect another cool night in the low 50s under optimal radiational cooling conditions. && .LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)... Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Friday Night Through Sunday. The most active weather of the period is expected Friday night into Saturday as the aforementioned low pressure system exits the Plains and moves into the Ohio Valley. Models have a solid handle on both the timing and strength of the low pressure system which allows for higher than normal confidence on the forecast progression. The surface low is expected to track across southwest Illinois to near Chicago with Indiana within the warm sector of the low, but a general lack of instability will limit the thunder potential. Much of the rain will be driven by strong isentropic lift with periods of moderate to briefly heavy rainfall. Total amounts generally expected to be between a half inch and an inch through Sunday. Precipitation is expected to begin during the morning hours Saturday with a weak dry slot arriving by the afternoon. This dry window may be short as the cold front quickly pushes through behind the main round of precipitation with additional showers and storms as early as mid afternoon. The overall strength of this low pressure system is much lower than the earlier week storm, so not expecting much CAA or backend showers for Sunday as skies begin to gradually clear. Monday Through Thursday. Forecast confidence quickly begins to fall off next week as the flow aloft becomes much more stagnant and the pattern becomes more driven by mesoscale factors that are very uncertain this far out. There does look to be at least occasional showers and thunderstorms which will generally be diurnally driven so will focus POPs highest in the 18Z to 00Z timeframe. Surface flow will generally remain southerly through the week which will keep temperatures just above normal with much higher dewpoints of mid to upper 60s. A more deeply wrapped up low looks likely towards the end of the week which should bring a relief from the more humid air and warmth. Severe weather looks unlikely through the week, but can`t rule out a strong pulse thunderstorm or two. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 610 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Impacts: - None Discussion: Diurnally driven cu already in the process of diminishing and should be completely gone by 00Z or shortly after. High pressure to our east and deep subsidence through the column will maintain mostly clear skies throughout the forecast period with just a subtle increase in cirrus late Friday. Light and variable winds overnight will transition to southeasterly on Friday at around 10kts. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ UPDATE...Ryan SHORT TERM...White LONG TERM...White AVIATION...Ryan