Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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983 FXUS63 KIND 311852 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 252 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday - Warming trend going into next week with periodic storm chances - Long range 8-14 day outlook trending toward below normal temperatures && .SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)... Issued at 251 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Early this afternoon, upper air data and satellite was depicting a high amplitude ridge from Hudson Bay to the Tennessee Valley. Meanwhile, at the surface, broad high pressure was found over the eastern Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley and broad low pressure was over the Southwest. Satellite was showing only some high clouds overhead. Southeast winds, filtered sunshine and subsidence has allowed temperatures to climb to the middle and upper 70s. Hi-Res soundings were showing a very dry column in place. Meanwhile, 305K isentropic analysis is introducing strong upglide overnight and into Saturday. Although it will take awhile for the atmosphere to saturate down, eventually low condensation pressure deficits support rain chances starting up after 06z. More than likely due to the dry column in place, it will be more like after 09z and starting over southwestern sections. Soundings later Saturday morning support widespread rain which will continue through the afternoon. Instability progs are showing very weak to no instability, so lightning strikes should be few and far between. Warm advection and increasing cloud cover suggest overnight lows will only be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Meanwhile, the thick cloud cover and rain will likely limit temperatures to the lower 70s Saturday afternoon. && .LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)... Issued at 251 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Saturday Night Through Sunday. By Saturday night the surface low will be moving across the northern half of the state with precipitation expected to continue through much of the night but the bulk of the forcing will be just ahead of the low associated with the strengthening LLJ rain coverage and intensity should decrease through the night. Some precipitation will likely continue into the daytime hours on the backend of the system but with the low being more broad and not quite as strong, the flow on the backend isn`t quite as robust as we saw earlier in the week. The low stratus clouds will begin to dissipate by the early afternoon with residual cu persisting through the late evening hours. Monday Through Friday. Forecast confidence quickly begins to fall off next week as the flow aloft becomes much more stagnant and the pattern becomes more driven by mesoscale factors that are very uncertain this far out. There does look to be at least occasional showers and thunderstorms which will generally be diurnally driven so will focus POPs highest in the 18Z to 00Z timeframe. Surface flow will generally remain southerly through the week which will keep temperatures just above normal with much higher dewpoints of mid to upper 60s. A more deeply wrapped up low looks likely towards the end of the week which should bring a relief from the more humid air and warmth. The pattern favors the potential for a few storm complexes across the Midwest but there is low confidence that any will impact central Indiana. Going into the latter portions of the week confidence is increasing in colder temperatures moving back in with a strong upper level low across the Great Lakes region bringing northwesterly flow at the surface and aloft with lower confidence on the track and strength of the low. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 1123 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Impacts: - Rain will move in by 09z-12z - MVFR flying conditions possible after the rain moves in - Very small chances for embedded thunderstorms Discussion: Flying conditions will be VFR through tonight. Then, rain will move in Saturday morning with chances for MVFR flying conditions as well. Thunderstorm chances are too low to put in the TAFs. Southeast winds less than 10 knots will turn to the south Saturday morning and increase to around 10 knots with gusts to 20 knots. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MK LONG TERM...White AVIATION...MK