Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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385 FXUS63 KIND 090151 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 951 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers possible tonight - Dry conditions expected Sunday through at least Wednesday - Cooler Sunday night-Monday night...moderating to near 90F highs for Thursday-Saturday && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 951 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 The cold front is entering the extreme northern forecast area at the moment. A thin line of showers accompanies it from this area northeast into northern Indiana. Skies were partly to mostly cloudy. The cold front will continue to sink south across central Indiana tonight. It doesn`t look like it will be able to generate much rainfall, given that better moisture remains west of the area. Will keep PoPs no higher than chance category, with most areas seeing 30 PoPs or less. Instability is lacking across the vast majority of the area, so feel that odds of any thunder are low enough not to mention it. Thus, removed all thunder from the forecast tonight. As the front moves through, there will be a brief period of gusty winds (up to around 20 mph). Temperatures look good, so no significant changes were made. && .SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)... Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Current satellite/radar observations show relatively quiet weather conditions over central IN this afternoon. Rain chances will begin to increase this evening as a cold front moves in. Low-level theta-e advection ahead of the front and low-level convergence should allow for scattered showers to develop with perhaps a few thunderstorms. Convective coverage will likely remain limited this evening into tonight due to the surface wave or associated cold front outpacing the parent trough. Rain chances remain capped at no greater than 40% for this reason. The greatest rain chances are across W/NW counties closer to the surface wave. Low rain chances will persist early in the overnight hours as the front continues to progress southeastward. Drier air then filters in late promoting quiet conditions. Expect winds to become N/NW once the front passes which should help keep temperatures near or slightly below normal. Weak surface high pressure settles in for Sunday allowing for quiet weather conditions to persist. While cool N/NW flow will be in place, less cloud cover will warm temperatures well into the 70s. A few locations could potentially reach the 80F mark. There is a low chance for light rain across far southern counties as a disturbance moves through Southern Indiana and Kentucky. Most guidance shows precipitation remaining near or south of the Ohio River so this appears unlikely. && .LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)... Corrected at 319 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Sunday Night through Wednesday... Mainly dry conditions will prevail through the first half of the week while overseeing steady moderation from sub-seasonal readings to near normal early June warmth by the Wednesday timeframe. A series of upper waves tracking generally along the US-Canada border, will start with a larger trough over east-central North America through Monday...followed by an amplified yet short wave ridge on Tuesday...and then a couple of smaller, more northern-tracking short waves during the remainder of the mid-week. At the surface broad Canadian high pressure will be building into Indiana at the start of the long term, cross the region Monday night...and settle from the Tennessee Valley to the Mid-Atlantic, along a more zonal pattern south of the passing mid-week northern waves. Despite adequate sunshine through the early week, light/moderate NNW breezes will hold temperatures a solid 5-10 degrees below normal through Monday night, with some typically cooler spots probably not reaching 70F on Monday. Widespread 50s Sunday night will set-up colder conditions Monday night where clear and nearly calm conditions will promote lows around 45-50F outside of the Indianapolis Metro. Distinct moderation to follow for Tuesday- Wednesday with slightly above normal marks by Wednesday afternoon from modest southwesterly flow...reaching the mid-80s for most locations under scattered clouds. Lack of stronger return flow should at least help to hold off summer-like/moderate humidity until at least Wednesday night of not Thursday. Thursday through Saturday... Above normal, mid-summer type warmth/heat with corresponding moderate humidity will be the rule starting on Thursday under the retracted upper flow...and a building ridge over the High Plains directing several days in the upper 80s to around 90F. Not the greatest confidence in temperature forecast for any given day as the pattern may support weak waves rippling down the east side of the building, western ridge and into the Midwest. Nonetheless moderate certainty in several above normal days. A small threat of potential showers/storms will also exist given the increased theta-E, albeit limited by an at-times capped profile and generally weak forcing. The normal first 90F+ day at Indianapolis is June 19...and the normal max/min at Indianapolis for the long term is 82/62. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 652 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Impacts: - A period of MVFR ceilings as a cold front moves through tonight - Wind shift to the northwest as the front passes with additional gusts to around 20kt with it - Isolated to scattered showers tonight - Gusts to 25kt return Sunday afternoon Discussion: Initial gusty winds will diminish early in the period. As a cold front moves through tonight, gusts to around 20kt will return after it passes. The front will have some scattered showers and a wind shift to the northwest with it. Thunder cannot be ruled out, mainly this evening at KLAF, but odds are too low to mention. A period of MVFR ceilings will occur tonight, then VFR conditions are expected Sunday. Winds will gust Sunday afternoon up to around 25kt. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...50 SHORT TERM...Melo LONG TERM...AGM AVIATION...50