Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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701 FXUS63 KIND 041708 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 108 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer today and humid. - Best chances for showers and thunderstorms Wed. - Possible brief downpours will accompany thunderstorms Wed morning. - Below normal temperatures in the 70s late week into the weekend && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 959 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected later this morning through the evening hours across Central Indiana. Satellite imagery shows an MCV over Central Missouri associated with a mid to upper level wave and an associated boundary extending southeastward into Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky.. Expect this feature to push NNE through the afternoon hours with a boundary lifting northeast into Indiana. Latest IND ACARs sounding still indicates a low level inversion just above the surface with elevated CAPE around 300 j/kg, weak mid level lapse rates near 500mb, and weak shear. The environment south and west of the aforementioned boundary is depicted nicely on the latest St. Louis ACARs sounding with surface based CAPE near 900 j/kg already at this hour, a more saturated column, and steeper mid level lapse rates. Expect the environment to continue destabilizing across Central Indiana through the next few hours and especially once the boundary pushes into the region through the afternoon hours. DayCloudPhase Distinction RGB and LightningCast tool show glaciating tops and lightning potential with convection in Western Kentucky behind this boundary indicative of an environment supportive of convective activity. The presence of the MCV and boundary may result in earlier convective initiation for Southern and Western Indiana than what guidance suggests as 00z-06z guidance likely does not have a good handle on those mesoscale features. Lowered highs for the south and western portion of the CWA due to increasing cloud cover already and the presence of showers near the IL/IN state line at this hour. Not too concerned with severe weather potential for later this afternoon as shear is relatively weak; however with the presence of this boundary and MCV, an isolated strong to severe storm with damaging winds is not out of the question, especially if a storm has deviant motion or merges with another cell. Best chance of a stronger storm will be across Western and Southern portions of Indiana, while Northern and Eastern portions of Central Indiana remain drier through at least early to mid afternoon with a lesser threat of strong storms later. && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 257 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Early this morning remnant cirrus and some mid-deck clouds were approaching the far Southwest Indiana counties, while further upstream a large area of cloud cover was nearly stationary. Despite the lack of cloud cover, winds remain elevated in the 1-3km layer, helping to produce some friction in the boundary layer and inhibit the ability for the surface to easily decouple. Expect temps to slowly radiate into mid 60s but could take until just prior to dawn for this to occur. After sunrise expect the upstream cirrus from overnight convection to be arriving from the southwest. With cirrus overhead, expect the depth to the mixing layer to be likely remain within the first couple thousand feet of the surface. This should keep the boundary from seeing any robust subsidence and maintain dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. While there does appear to be some filtering to the daytime heating, surface parcels should readily climb given the slightly drier boundary layer conditions and change to heat capacity. But if clouds become thicker earlier in the day this could play a role in keeping temps in the lower 80s longer. Still appears set that mid/upr 80s is in store for the afternoon, but with some increased mid-lvl instability beginning to approach from the west/southwest this could introduce additional cloud cover along with an isolated showers/thunderstorm late in the afternoon. Broad trough continues to slowly slide east, but appears for much of the evening to remain displaced to the west. The southerly flow moist layer will be advecting north across the Ohio Valley. Then the question becomes when will precip overspread the area and what will the precip footprint look like. Strong ascent to parcels upstream this evening still looks to be probable, coupled with collision to parcels as they steadily moisten and should help increase precip shield late tonight. Guidance differs on coverage as well as timing, so have not made many changes to the prior forecast of low chance pops this evening, then increase in coverage and chances overnight. && .LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)... Issued at 257 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Wednesday... Main concern for the day will revolve around the convective footprint and timing. The longwave pattern suggests a broad area of southerly flow from the GOMEX streaming north through the Tenn Valley into Ohio Valley. This allows the moist channel to stream moist/ascending parcels through this area, continuing further north/northwest with the low-lvl shortwave displaced across the Upper Midwest. Upstream a 500mb trough will be sliding into the Northern Plains, which should assist the ascending parcels further in the downstream zones of the Ohio Valley. The question on whether the surface will become unstable in the morning hours remains, but the setup would suggest cloud cover shielding much of the solar energy thus helping to limit how unstable the atmosphere becomes. There does appear to be some organized convection developing upstream early in the day and would further reinforce the northern stream of cloud cover and eventual precip into Central Indiana by midday/afternoon, but it is conceivable that some of this could get more organized around daybreak. The trough axis will quickly pivot east through Indiana in the afternoon, which should also push the deeper layered moisture to the east along with convective elements. But overall with lengthy ascent to already moist parcels what precip that does fall will likely be from better collision coalescence of parcels, coupled with the higher water content to the atmosphere and any precip could easily produce more efficient downpours or pockets of heavier rainfall. Guidance has continued a progressive approach to the moist channel steadily pushing east by the evening hours. It appears a secondary trailing moist boundary will lag late Wed across the Western Great Lakes stretching southwest through Iowa, and should push through during the nocturnal hours. But there has been good agreement that mid-lvl heights are leaning towards some weak diffluent flow which should be enough subsidence to erode any lagging moisture. So feel confident that precip will be done in the evening hours, then a dry overnight progged for Indiana. Thursday through Sunday... Generally the several days following Wed appear primed to be incredible. Northwest flow will be the main player, ushering in much cooler air to the region. Thur/Fri will observe a pleasant thermal trough digging south that should help keep afternoon temps in the 70s and overnight lows in the 50s. Sat could feature enough mid-lvl moisture that some diurnally induced sprinkles may develop. The steep lapse rates and perhaps some surface destabilization during the afternoon could aid in an isolated thunderstorm as well. Sun guidance begins to deviate amongst ensembles members, as a tropical remnant enters the far Southwest CONUS and appears to introduce moisture to the southern Rockies. The deep trough should be starting to relax marginally Sun, which likely will allow any system to traverse the CONUS efficiently. While guidance is hinting that a central CONUS precip footprint could develop, it would not take much to introduce clouds and perhaps low chance precip to Indiana by late Sun. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 108 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Impacts: - Wind gusts to around 18KT out of the south, becoming westerly tomorrow afternoon - Scattered shower and storm after 20-23z continuing through tomorrow afternoon. - MVFR or worse conditions developing in showers and storms Discussion: Latest satellite and radar imagery shows an area of low pressure moving NE into West Central Illinois with a boundary extending SE into South Central Indiana. Showers and a few storms have already been observed across far SW Indiana this afternoon. Expect convection to increase in coverage from SW to NE through the afternoon and evening hours. There will likely be a few rounds of convection this evening and then again during portions of the late evening and overnight hours. Expect cigs and vis to drop to MVFR or worse under any convective activity this evening, then more widespread MVFR cigs are likely to develop overnight and toward sunrise. Potential is there for a break in convection sometime during the morning hours Wednesday, before another line of showers and storms develops and pushes east in the 15-20z timeframe Wednesday. Confidence on exact timing of storms is low due to the scattered nature of the storms and how dependent storm development is on small mesoscale features which may not have formed yet. Higher confidence exists in storm chances during peak heating of the day later this evening. Low level mixing and a tightening southerly gradient will result in gusts of 15-20 kts this afternoon and evening. Winds will likely remain elevated in the 8-12kt range overnight with higher gusts under any convection. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...CM SHORT TERM...Beach LONG TERM...Beach AVIATION...CM