414
FXUS63 KIND 301808
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
208 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain/storm chances persist through late tonight with the
  potential for localized flash flooding

- Isolated strong wind gusts are also possible this afternoon and
  evening

- Drier and slightly cooler weather expected towards the middle of this
  week before more humid conditions return Friday into next weekend

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 930 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

The forecast area is free of rain for the moment just after 13Z as
weak subsidence has moved into the region behind the earlier
convection. Much of the area was under clouds but there were areas
of sunshine...focused especially over the northern Wabash Valley.
Temperatures were in the 70s.

Bit of a convoluted forecast in the near term as more substantial
forcing aloft likely does not move in until late day at the earliest
and potentially focused more during the evening. While scattered
convection will begin to pop up by late morning and early
afternoon...showers and storms will be dependent for much of the day
on available instability and any remnant outflow boundaries from
storms Sunday evening and overnight. Locally heavy rainfall will
remain the primary threat from slow moving storms and with PWATs
persisting at near 2 inch levels.

BL shear values will increase into the evening ahead of an
approaching cold front and with an upper level wave. Potential for
slightly more organized storms as a result with a few stronger cells
that could produce strong wind gusts as downdrafts collapse.

Low level thermals support highs mainly in the mid 80s this
afternoon. Zone and grid updates out.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Today and tonight..

Expect an unsettled weather pattern to persist through today as a
few upper level impulses move through. Deep moisture still in place
should also provide fuel for precipitation and keep humidity
elevated. The first disturbance is already moving into the region
this morning which is helping to support scattered showers and
storms, predominately across south-central Indiana at this time.
Efficient rainfall rates combined with training storms has led to
localized flash flooding. This is the primary concern over the next
few hours as storms likely continue to train over the same areas.

Scattered convection will continue over central Indiana through the
early afternoon hours before the upper level impulse departs. There
could be a period of lower convective coverage from around the mid-
late afternoon through the evening once the wave moves east and
overall forcing becomes weaker. The primary wave which will push a
weak cold front through the area is then expected to move in tonight
bringing another chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Localized flooding will be the primary threat with both upper level
waves moving through today as high PWATs and warm rain processes
promote efficient rainfall rates. Damp or soggy soils over portions
of south-central Indiana from recent rainfall could also lead to
quicker onset of flash flooding. Thankfully, storms will be moving
slightly faster than yesterday in response to strengthening flow
aloft. Weak deep-layer shear will limit severe weather potential.
However, moderate destabilization and steep low-level lapse rates
may support isolated strong-severe wind gusts with any loosely
organized storms.

The second upper wave and associated frontal boundary begins to
shift east late tonight with rain chances diminishing from west to
east. Look for POPs to remain in the forecast through the overnight
period over the southeast half of central Indiana as the cold front
may not completely push through until Tuesday morning. Expect highs
to generally be in the mid 80s today with lows around the mid 60s to
near 70F tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Overall forecast thoughts for the extended period remain largely the
same so an update to the discussion was not warranted. Please refer
to the long term discussion below for more details on the
forecast...

Unsettled weather for the early part of this week will shift
east Tuesday morning as a drier and slightly cooler airmass builds
in courtesy of broad surface high pressure and drier northwest flow
aloft. Upper level ridging will return by late next week with a
likely return to isolated to scattered diurnal convection Friday
into the weekend as a hotter and more humid airmass reestablishes
across the Ohio Valley.

Tuesday through Thursday..

Other than a few lingering showers Tuesday morning...mostly quiet
weather conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday as high
pressure settles across the region. Dewpoints will finally fall back
into the lower and middle 60s and perhaps even down into the upper
50s in northern portions of the forecast area for midweek...a
refreshing respite from the oppressive air of the last week or so.
While largely dry conditions are expected...a few showers and storms
are possible focused mainly across northern counties by Thursday
afternoon as a weak front drifts into the lower Great Lakes. Highs
will mainly reside in the low to mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday
before beginning to rise on Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...

The arrival of ridging aloft coinciding with a weakening of the
surface high will enable deeper moisture to advect back into the
Ohio Valley for late week with growing confidence in higher dewpoint
air at or above 70 degrees making a return for Independence Day into
next weekend. Instability will increase in response with isolated to
scattered pulse intensity...short lived and slow moving convection
developing during the afternoon and evening ...mainly Saturday and
Sunday. May see an increase in overall convective coverage late next
weekend into early next week with signals in the ensembles for a
cold front to approach the region from the northwest. Highs will
rise back into the lower 90s for next weekend with heat indices
again approaching 100 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Impacts:

- Scattered showers around at times through the period, can`t rule
out isolated lightning, but not enough to include in TAF

- Winds shifting through period from SW to NE

Discussion:

Scattered convection is expected at times through the period.
Isolated showers have formed this afternoon and should continue into
the evening. After a brief lull, additional showers, possibly a few
thunderstorms, could impact central Indiana TAF sites. Excepting
ceilings to stay at VFR, but MVFR visibilities are possible within
heavier showers.

Wind is expected to stay largely less than 10 kts through the
period, with a few slightly higher gusts. Wind direction will shift
overnight from SW direction to NW as a cold front passes through.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Ryan
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...KF