Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
473 FXUS63 KIWX 140636 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 236 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Warm and dry conditions will persist through next week. -Drought conditions will likely continue to expand and worsen. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Outer vorticity bands associated with the remnant tropical circulation of Francine are producing a few sprinkles just to our S/SW but our CWA will remain dry through the weekend. Very strong mid/upper level ridge will remain anchored over the Great Lakes given blocking pattern over Canada and the north Atlantic. Strong subsidence remains over the region with a very dry/stable airmass noted in observed and model soundings. Strong upper high will effectively suppress the tropical circulation to our south. Only meager increases in low level theta-e noted locally with better moisture remaining southwest and west of the area given predominate SE flow. Thermal profiles remain unchanged through early next week. Highs remain in the mid/upper 80s with only subtle variances due to variable cloud cover/mixing. Another tropical system is likely to develop off the Carolina coast next week (40% chance per latest NHC forecast). Considerable uncertainty remains in the eventual track of this system as it heads for the Upper Ohio Valley. Several deterministic models still show potential for remnant/outer rain bands to reach our far eastern zones on Wed. However ensembles show a high degree of spread and subsequently NBM maintains a dry forecast. This is likely the safer bet given exceptional drought over parts of Ohio and very dry resident airmass. Areas west of I-69 are very likely to remain dry. If rain does reach our far east it will be light with minimal impact on worsening drought conditions anyway. Otherwise persistence forecast rules through the end of next week as behemoth ridge goes nowhere. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1137 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024 A large blocking type of upper level ridge over the Upper Great Lakes region and a dry atmosphere will prevent cloud formation except for some remnant high clouds from what had been hurricane Francine. At the surface, a very predominant ridge over Quebec Province will help keep an east flow over northern Indiana. Will continue to keep TAFs short with scattered high clouds and east winds around 8 knots through the entire TAF period. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AGD AVIATION...Skipper