607
FXUS63 KIWX 092356
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
756 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rather cool by June standards Monday with highs in the 60s
  (coolest near the lake).

- Temperatures slowly warm through the upcoming week, with well
  above normal conditions arriving this weekend.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms return for Thursday
  night into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Overall a rather tranquil several days in store for the area as
high pressure dominates. A cold front will drop south tonight
into Monday morning, bringing a reinforcing shot of colder air
as well as increasing low clouds that may very well persist
through much of Monday as strong CAA settles in. Previous highs
were rather warm compared to much of the guidance with many of
the models only having highs in the 60s and maybe upper 50s
along the lake. Collaboration has resulted in lowering of highs,
but also trying to account for the possibility of clearing in
the afternoon and the June sun offsetting some of the impacts of
the CAA. It may be a bit breezy in some areas as well,
especially closer to the lake.

The cold air will be short lived as ridging moves in with
temperatures closer to normal Tuesday followed by above normal
(well into the 80s) for the rest of the period. A weak front
will bring a chance of showers and maybe a few storms, but
overall confidence is low given deeper moisture will still
reside well south of the region.

Trends still suggest that the upper level ridge will strengthen
further this weekend into next week with highs in the upper 80s
to possibly low 90s settling in. Dewpoints will remain in check
initially with heat indices a few degrees warmer than forecasted
highs.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 750 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Predominantly VFR/MVFR for the TAF period. A weak surface
trough/cold front will move southeastward through Monday,
bringing mostly continued breezy N-NW winds (especially KSBN
through the early evening) and an increase in cloud cover.
Upstream observations show ceilings beginning around 5000 ft and
then dropping towards the 1500-2500 range (mostly 2500). Model
guidance suggests KSBN will stay above 2,000 feet, but have KFWA
going down to around 1500 ft between 12-15z when we start to see
daytime mixing. Gusts up to around 20-25 knots are possible at
KSBN during the afternoon thanks to enhancement from the lake
breeze.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...MCD